UBS: Florida’s own data reveals a problem with DeSantis’s property tax cut plan for 92% of homeowners

(SeaPRwire) –   Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is pitching a major property tax reform with a bold promise: raising the state’s homestead exemption to $500,000 to eliminate property taxes for 92% of homeowners. However, analysts at investment bank UBS are urging caution, pointing to the state’s own official data to challenge those claims.

In a research note released Wednesday, UBS highlighted a significant discrepancy between the governor’s projections and data from the Florida Office of Economic and Demographic Research, the state’s nonpartisan fiscal analysis agency. While DeSantis claims that increasing the homestead exemption to $250,000 would exempt roughly 60% of Florida homeowners from property taxes, state records indicate that only about 47% of homesteaded properties are valued at or below that threshold. Furthermore, at the $500,000 level—where DeSantis promised 92% coverage—the state’s own data suggests the actual share is only between 75% and 80%.

This represents a gap of more than 12 percentage points between the governor’s headline promise and the figures supported by independent state analysis.

Currently, Florida’s homestead exemption is capped at $50,000, which applies to just 0.5% of all homestead properties in the state. DeSantis has called a special legislative session to advance the proposal, which would initially raise the exemption to $250,000 before eventually reaching $500,000. To become law, the measure requires 60% approval from state lawmakers and 60% voter approval on the November ballot. Additionally, a five-year residency requirement would apply to new Florida residents.

A separate report from the Florida Office of Economic and Demographic Research revealed an even wider gap, showing that only about 28% of homestead properties have a median assessed value of $250,000 or less. Meanwhile, March data from Redfin placed Florida’s median home sale price at $416,800.

Despite the discrepancies, UBS analysts did not dismiss the proposal entirely. The firm noted the plan “could positively impact affordability” in the state, pointing to county appraiser data that suggests average annual property tax savings of $1,800 in Broward County and $1,500 in Miami-Dade. Analysts also suggested the legislation could benefit public homebuilders with significant exposure to the Florida market, such as Lennar, D.R. Horton, and PulteGroup, which project between 17% and 25% of their 2025 deliveries to come from the state.

The initiative follows previous unsuccessful attempts; a similar measure to eliminate non-school homestead property taxes passed the Florida House in February but stalled in the Senate. Critics, including former state Senator Jeff Brandes, have questioned whether the plan fully accounts for its financial impact on local municipalities, noting that property taxes are vital for funding public schools, police, and fire services across Florida’s counties.

House Minority Leader Fentrice Driskell, a Democrat from Tampa, warned that the proposed cuts could undermine the very public services the governor aims to support.

“Any cut, even though it might seem small in the grand scheme of things, could be devastating. There is no plan to make our local governments whole on the back end,” Driskell said on Tuesday. “Property taxes cover the costs of law enforcement and first responders. They make sure that you can visit the library without having to pay a fee. Once you start explaining these things, you start to understand that property taxes are not the real enemy here.”

To mitigate the impact on smaller communities, DeSantis has proposed creating a trust fund using surplus state revenue to assist rural counties. However, skeptics argue that details remain scarce on how this fund would scale to address the much larger revenue shortfalls resulting from a $500,000 exemption.

For this report, journalists utilized generative AI as a research tool. An editor verified the accuracy of the information prior to publication.