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(SeaPRwire) – As of 9:15 a.m. Eastern Time on this day, crude oil traded at $100.20 per barrel, using Brent as the benchmark—we’ll dive into that benchmark in more detail shortly. This is a 67-cent increase from yesterday’s morning price, and a roughly $35.30 rise over the past 12 months.
Will oil prices go up?
Predicting the future direction of oil prices is impossible. A wide range of factors influence oil’s price movement, but ultimately, everything comes down to supply and demand. When risks of economic downturn, armed conflict, and similar crises are high, oil’s price trajectory can shift rapidly.
How oil prices translate to gas pump prices
When you pay for gasoline at the pump, you are covering more than just the cost of crude oil itself; you are also paying for supply chain steps like refining and wholesale services, not to mention taxes and local gas station markups.
Still, the crude oil component has the most substantial impact on the final gasoline price, as it typically accounts for more than half of the per-gallon cost. When oil prices spike, gasoline prices follow suit. And frustratingly, when oil prices drop, gas prices tend to fall slowly to match the lower cost—a pattern sometimes referred to as “rockets and feathers”.
The role of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve
The U.S. maintains a stockpile of crude oil called the Strategic Petroleum Reserve for emergency scenarios. Its primary purpose is to ensure energy security during crises, such as sanctions, severe storm damage, or even armed conflict. It can also help ease severe price hikes during supply shocks.
This is not a long-term solution—instead, it offers immediate relief to support consumers and keep critical parts of the economy running, including key industries, emergency services, and public transportation.
How oil and natural gas prices are linked
Oil and natural gas are both major energy fuels. Significant changes in oil prices can have a ripple effect on natural gas prices. For example, if oil prices rise, some industries may switch to using natural gas for certain parts of their operations when possible, which boosts demand for natural gas.
Historical performance of oil
When analyzing oil’s historical performance, two main benchmarks are commonly used:
- Brent crude oil is the leading global oil benchmark.
- West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is the primary North American oil benchmark.
Between the two, Brent better reflects global oil market performance, as it sets the price for most of the world’s traded crude oil. It is also the most reliable way to track long-term oil price trends. In fact, the U.S. Energy Information Administration now uses Brent as its primary reference in its Annual Energy Outlook.
Looking at Brent crude prices across several decades, oil has never had a stable price. It has seen sharp spikes driven by factors like wars and supply cuts, as well as steep crashes caused by global recessions and oversupply (called a “glut”). For example:
- The early 1970s brought the first major oil shock, when the Middle East cut exports and imposed an embargo on the U.S. and other nations during the Yom Kippur War.
- Prices dropped in the mid-1980s due to lower demand and more non-OPEC oil producers entering the market.
- Prices spiked again in 2008 amid rising global demand, but soon plummeted alongside the global financial crisis.
- During the 2020 COVID lockdowns, oil demand collapsed to an unprecedented level, pushing prices below $20 per barrel.
All of this shows that oil’s historical price trends have never been consistent. Its value is heavily influenced by wars, recessions, OPEC policy shifts, evolving energy initiatives and regulations, and a wide range of other factors.
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Frequently asked questions
How is the current price of oil per barrel actually determined?
The current price of a barrel of oil depends largely on supply and demand, including news about potential future supply and demand trends (such as geopolitical events, OPEC+ decisions, and more). In the U.S., oil prices also shift based on how supportive an administration is of drilling, as this can impact future supply. For example, the 2025 Trump administration moved to open more than 1.5 million acres of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge’s Coastal Plain to oil and gas leasing, reversing the Biden administration’s policy of limiting oil drilling in the Arctic.
How often does the price of oil change during the day?
Oil prices update continuously while the futures markets are open. A futures market is effectively an auction where participants agree to buy or sell oil at a set price for future delivery. As long as people and companies are trading these contracts, oil prices will keep changing.
How does U.S. shale oil production affect the current price of oil?
In short, shale is rock that contains trapped oil and natural gas. Think of shale as untapped energy reserves. The more shale oil the U.S. accesses, the greater the domestic energy supply—and the more easily oil prices can avoid sharp spikes thanks to increased available supply.
How does the current price of oil impact inflation and the broader economy?
When oil is expensive, the cost of everyday goods tends to rise. This is not just tied to energy costs like home heating or gas utilities, but also to the logistics required to get products to consumers. For example, shipping costs increase when oil prices are high, which drives up the price of groceries as it becomes more expensive to transport goods from warehouses and farms to store shelves.
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