War in Iran Sparks Uncertainty in Dubrovnik: Will It Hit 4 Million Tourists in 2026?

(SeaPRwire) –   Summer is still several months off, yet the streets of Dubrovnik’s old town in Croatia are already packed with tourists from across the globe. This typically signals a robust upcoming season, but this year an air of uncertainty lingers.

Global unrest sparked by the Iran war and skyrocketing fuel costs have introduced unpredictability to the tourism sector—including in Dubrovnik, Croatia’s premier Adriatic Sea destination that draws millions of visitors each year.

The economic stakes for Croatia are significant: Tourism is one of the nation’s main revenue streams and relies heavily on international travelers.

While Dubrovnik has seen an uptick in tourist numbers lately, officials caution that nothing is guaranteed. The fuel crisis and Persian Gulf tensions could drive airfares higher and slow arrivals just as the season gains momentum.

Miro Draskovic, director of the Dubrovnik Tourist Board, noted that while the U.S. market remains strong, some Australian travelers—who typically rank among the top 10 national groups visiting the city—are now “facing difficulties traveling to Europe.”

“The situation for sure is very, very difficult, and we are following what’s happening every day,” he told The Associated Press.

So far, things are looking positive. Dubrovnik Airport recorded a 13% increase in visitors over Easter compared to the same period last year. Its bustling atmosphere and boats shuttling tourists around are a testament to the city’s enduring appeal.

The UNESCO World Heritage city is known for its rich medieval history, seafront location, and the churches and palaces within its stone walls. Dubrovnik’s popularity surged after it served as a filming location for the hit TV series “Game of Thrones.”

Compared to other regions in Croatia, Dubrovnik could be harder hit if the fuel crisis deepens, given its position at the southern tip of the country’s Adriatic coastline. Around 80% of visitors arrive in Dubrovnik by plane.

Marina Ruso Mileusnic, a spokeswoman for the city’s airport (which connects to some 70 airports worldwide), said “we are very cautious about the upcoming season.”

Predictions for the weeks and months ahead have been mixed.

In early April, Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency, warned in an interview with the AP that Europe has only weeks of jet fuel supplies left and could face its biggest energy crisis ever.

This week, however, European Union Transport Commissioner Apostolos Tzitzikostas stated there is “no actual evidence” of shortages in the 27-nation bloc, as officials urged people to plan their holidays without fear.

Singaporean businessman Ramon Padiernos agreed. The Middle East crisis forced him to switch from his favorite carriers Emirates and Qatar Airways to Turkish Airlines, but he still made it to Dubrovnik.

“We feel the impact maybe of oil prices but I think everybody just goes on with their lives and enjoy their holidays,” he said. “I think it is best for the world to see the lighter side of it, rather than focusing on the issues that we cannot control.”

Beyond its effects on tourism, the energy crisis has also contributed to a rise in Croatia’s inflation rate to 5.8% in April—one of the highest in the EU.

The country recorded nearly 22 million tourist arrivals last year. According to the national tourism board, Dubrovnik alone accounted for 4.28 million of the roughly 110 million overnight stays in 2025.

Draskovic said hopes are high that things will soon return to normal. Until then, he added, “we can only work on a day-to-day basis to get the best possible season we can.”

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Jovana Gec contributed to this report.