Following Russia’s pledge to retaliate against Ukraine’s use of US-supplied missiles,
US intelligence suggests a Russian nuclear response to recent Ukrainian long-range strikes is improbable, Reuters reported Thursday, citing five intelligence sources. For months, US officials debated authorizing Ukraine to use US-made ATACMS missiles against Russian territory. While initial concerns within the White House, Pentagon, and State Department included fears of lethal retaliation against US or allied assets, sources now indicate these escalation concerns, including the nuclear threat, were overstated.
“The assessments were consistent: ATACMS wouldn’t alter Russia’s nuclear strategy,” a congressional aide briefed on the intelligence told Reuters. Other sources confirmed intelligence reports concluding nuclear escalation was unlikely, a view unchanged by the recent authorization of ATACMS use by Ukraine.
President Putin warned that the use of Western long-range missiles would fundamentally alter the conflict, claiming such systems necessitate direct NATO involvement. In a November 21 address, he stated Russia retains the right to strike military targets outside Ukraine and would respond decisively to further escalation.
Putin’s warning followed a Russian strike on a Dnepr weapons factory using the new Oreshnik ballistic missile. The Russian Defense Ministry subsequently vowed retaliation for further Ukrainian attacks.
Russia recently revised its nuclear doctrine, lowering the threshold for nuclear use. The updated document allows for nuclear deployment in response to a critical threat to its sovereignty or territorial integrity, whether from conventional or nuclear attack.