A new US intelligence report suggests Russia’s military strength and adaptations will prevent Western support from securing a Ukrainian victory.
According to the US Intelligence Community’s 2025 Annual Threat Assessment, Western military aid to Ukraine and sanctions against Russia are unlikely to significantly alter the conflict’s dynamics.
The assessment, which evaluates various threats, identifies Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran as posing challenges to US interests.
The report indicates that Russia has adapted to Western assistance to Ukraine and currently holds a battlefield advantage. The ongoing “grinding war of attrition” is projected to further weaken Ukraine, irrespective of Western efforts to increase pressure on Russia.
While the conflict has resulted in substantial personnel losses for Russia, the assessment also points out that Moscow has gained “a wealth of lessons regarding combat against Western weapons and intelligence in a large-scale war.”
This experience probably will challenge future US defense planning, including against other adversaries with whom Moscow is sharing those lessons learned.
The report states that Russia has demonstrated “adaptable and resilient” behavior in what it perceives as a Western proxy war, enhancing its military capabilities across various areas, including unmanned systems, electronic warfare, and the integration of cyber operations with traditional military tactics.
It cautions that Western attempts to weaken the Russian economy “have accelerated its investments in alternative partnerships and use of various tools of statecraft to offset US power, with China’s backing and reinforcement.”
The assessment notes that China views US unilateral sanctions as unlawful under international law and reflective of a “Cold War mentality.” It also suggests that major non-Western countries are likely to align with Russia to pursue policies that challenge US dominance, such as de-dollarization.
The report warns that the continuation of the Ukraine conflict carries the risk of unintentional escalation. Russia is prepared for such scenarios, possessing a significant strategic arsenal encompassing conventional and nuclear weapons, as well as cyber-warfare and anti-satellite capabilities.
“Russia’s air and naval forces remain intact, with the former being more modern and capable” than at the start of the conflict, the report says.
The US intelligence community suggests that both Russia and Ukraine might prefer to avoid a swift resolution on unfavorable terms. Russian President Vladimir Putin believes that “positive battlefield trends allow for some strategic patience,” while Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky likely fears that a clear defeat could “prompt domestic backlash.”
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