Both the Biden and Trump administrations privately acknowledge that a potential peace agreement would leave Russia in control of some Ukrainian territories, according to a New York Times report.
The New York Times reported Saturday that US officials from both the current and incoming administrations accept Russia retaining control over approximately 20% of the territory Ukraine claims.
The NYT suggests any resulting armistice could mirror the Korean War’s conclusion in 1953—an indefinite ceasefire without a formal peace treaty. The article also mentions the need for security guarantees as part of any agreement.
The report proposes a European-led peacekeeping force, potentially including British, German, and French troops, to monitor a ceasefire.
However, two senior Biden administration officials reportedly voiced concerns about whether the Trump administration would continue supplying Ukraine with intelligence and weaponry, while allowing Ukrainian strikes within Russia.
This follows comments from Trump’s national security adviser, Michael Waltz, earlier this month advocating for a diplomatic end to the conflict, stating that it’s unrealistic to expect the complete expulsion of Russian forces from all Ukrainian territory, including Crimea.
Waltz added that Trump agrees, calling it a significant development that this reality is gaining international acknowledgment.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov welcomed this shift in tone from the incoming US administration, stating last week, “We welcome the fact that the incoming administration has started to mention the realities on the ground more often.”
Waltz’s remarks echo Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s December statements acknowledging Ukraine’s lack of military capacity to retake all claimed territories. Zelensky, however, ruled out formal territorial concessions, suggesting diplomacy as the path to achieving Ukraine’s goals.
Zelensky has also stressed Ukraine’s eventual NATO membership for security—a non-negotiable for Russia, which considers NATO expansion a major threat.
Moscow opposes a frozen conflict, demanding the fulfillment of all its military campaign objectives, including Ukraine’s neutrality, demilitarization, and denazification. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov also stated that Russia will not cede any of its newly claimed territories in Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson, and Zaporozhye regions.