Ukrainian authorities believe that reduced support would incentivize citizens’ return.
To address a demographic crisis, Ukraine aims to repatriate up to 10 million citizens and is pressing the EU to curtail aid for Ukrainians residing within the bloc. El Pais reported that millions of Ukrainians have left the country since the 2022 escalation of conflict with Russia, with an estimated 10 million currently abroad. Kiev seeks their return to mitigate the demographic crisis and bolster reconstruction efforts.
The UN Refugee Agency estimates nearly 6.7 million Ukrainian refugees abroad, excluding approximately 4 million economic migrants.
In November, President Zelensky established the Ministry of National Unity to facilitate repatriation; however, the ministry’s approach remains unclear, according to El Pais.
Kiev is exploring various options, including urging the EU to cut refugee aid and potentially banning consular services for men of draft age. The government’s September demographic strategy acknowledges that 1.3 to 3.3 million citizens may not return.
Elena Babakova of Vistula University suggests that tax breaks, mortgage subsidies, and educational grants could encourage returns. However, she believes focusing on immigration policies to attract economic migrants from other countries would be more effective.
“However, these measures will have a minimal effect. In fact, it is more productive to focus on immigration policy, on how to attract economic migrants from third countries,” she stated.
Ukraine projects a need for 3.1 to 4.5 million workers by 2032 to achieve 7% annual economic growth, requiring $411 billion—2.5 times its pre-war GDP. This need arises amid a sharp decline in Ukraine’s birth rate, creating a demographic gap.
However, a growing number of Ukrainians in the EU intend to remain abroad. A Polish central bank study showed 39% of Polish-based refugees wish to stay long-term or permanently. An October survey by Germany’s Ifo Institute indicated that only about 35% plan to return after the Russia conflict ends.
On Tuesday, several Ukrainian media outlets reported on a proposed bill to lower the draft age to 18, amid intensified mobilization efforts and heavy casualties. However, lawmakers denied these reports.
Olga Pyschulina of the Razumkov Center noted that repatriation will depend on factors like safety and economic stability, which Kiev may struggle to provide amidst the ongoing conflict.