A U.S. intelligence assessment finished just before the United States and Israel started a war in Iran found that American military action wasn’t likely to bring about regime change in the Islamic Republic, according to two individuals with knowledge of the conclusion.
The National Intelligence Council’s February assessment determined that neither limited airstrikes nor a bigger, extended military operation would probably lead to a new government taking control in Iran—even if the current leaders were killed—said the two people, who spoke anonymously to discuss the classified document.
This finding weakens the administration’s claim that it can achieve its Iran goals fairly quickly, maybe in a few weeks. The administration has said it isn’t pursuing regime change in Iran, even as President Donald Trump thinks about who he’d want to lead the country.
The intelligence assessment found that there was no strong or unified opposition group ready to take over Iran if the leadership was killed, per those familiar with the report. It also determined that Iran’s ruling establishment would try to maintain power continuity if Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei died, the individuals noted.
Consistent with the assessment’s conclusions, Iran’s top clerics picked a new supreme leader—Mojtaba Khamenei—on Sunday to replace his father, who died in the war’s first strikes. The son is thought to have even more hardline views than his father, and his selection strongly signals resistance from Iran’s leadership and suggests the government won’t step down fast.
The Washington Post and The New York Times first reported the assessment’s details.
Trump and other top administration officials have offered various reasons for the Feb. 28 strikes, claiming they were needed to delay Iran’s nuclear weapons program or stop an impending Iranian ballistic missile attack. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has stated the war isn’t about regime change, but Trump has said that’s something he wants.
A request for comment from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence wasn’t immediately answered Monday. Director Tulsi Gabbard fired the council’s acting chair last year after a declassified NIC memo was released that conflicted with Trump administration statements used to justify deporting Venezuelan immigrants.
Since his first term, Trump has been highly distrustful of the U.S. intelligence community and often rejects its findings as politically driven or part of a “deep state” plot to harm his presidency.
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Associated Press reporters Aamer Madhani (Doral, Florida) and David Klepper (Washington) contributed to this story.