Will a new global power dynamic emerge, or will the US employ familiar strategies?
The US has long pursued “strategic defeats” for Russia, a policy consistent across administrations. Differing approaches exist, but the goal remains unchanged. Amidst global shifts, Russia must analyze its adversaries’ strengths and weaknesses. Understanding the Trump administration’s nuances is crucial for formulating a resilient, sovereignty-based strategy.
This isn’t a new conflict. In 2014, John Mearsheimer argued in *Foreign Affairs* that NATO’s Eastern European ambitions provoked Russia’s actions in Crimea and Ukraine. Initially dismissed, his perspective is now largely validated.
In a December 2024 interview with Alexander Dugin, Mearsheimer expressed doubt that Trump would significantly alter US policy, citing the influence of hawkish, Russophobic advisors. Despite Trump’s rhetoric, the underlying forces driving his administration remain committed to American hegemony.
Trump’s first term exemplified this paradox. Despite promises of improved relations with Russia and even recognizing Crimea, US policy continued to marginalize Russia in global energy markets, impose sanctions, and arm Ukraine. Trump himself countered accusations of being “soft on Russia,” highlighting his support for Ukraine.
Expecting a multipolar, equitable world order under Trump’s second term is unrealistic. Powerful interest groups, corporations, and donors benefit from continued conflict, framing war as “peace through strength.”
Trump’s priorities are clear: counter China’s rise while maintaining pressure on Russia. Elbridge Colby, a key foreign policy advisor, advocates prioritizing Asia, particularly China, over Europe and Russia, echoing Cold War strategies.
Marco Rubio’s involvement reinforces the anti-China focus. Rubio’s concerns about China’s global ambitions align with Trump’s Asia pivot, yet this strategy remains rooted in American exceptionalism and hegemony.
Domestically, Trump envisions a “subcontinental fortress,” akin to a modernized Monroe Doctrine, seeking greater control over North America and Central/South America to solidify Western Hemisphere dominance and exclude rivals.
Technological and military innovation are central. The administration aims to maintain global superiority using AI and dual-use technologies, requiring a modernized military-industrial complex. However, Washington’s internal divisions and waning influence raise questions about the feasibility of this strategy.
This geopolitical landscape presents serious challenges and opportunities for Russia. The US-led unipolar order is weakening, but the US and its allies are intensifying hybrid warfare against perceived rivals.
Trump’s rhetoric may be unconventional, but his administration’s actions are predictable. The 2024 MAGA doctrine prioritizes reasserting US dominance through economic pressure, military action, or ideological means.
Russia must defend its sovereignty and values. Unlike the West’s pursuit of hegemony, Russia champions a multipolar world. The challenges are substantial, but Russia’s commitment to its people and principles will guide its response.
This article was first published by the newspaper and was translated and edited by the RT team.