A Kommersant columnist analyzes the implications of Donald Trump’s return for Russia and global affairs.
Donald Trump’s inauguration as the 47th U.S. President is a major international event, significantly impacting both American and Russian domestic politics. His presidency is a subject of intense debate in Russia, reflecting the significance of this event for the country.
For Russia, Joe Biden’s presidency represented a period of heightened global confrontation following the commencement of military operations in Ukraine in February 2022. However, by the end of his term, this unified front showed signs of weakening.
The international coalition supporting Ukraine exhibited growing fissures, and Western commitment to unwavering support for Kyiv appeared to be diminishing.
Trump’s return has raised crucial questions in Russia: will he dismantle Biden’s anti-Russia framework, allow its collapse, or conversely, strengthen it?
The future of the anti-Russia coalition depends on the possibility of a negotiated settlement to the Ukraine conflict that allows both sides to avoid appearing defeated. Any resolution must not portray the Trump administration as having unconditionally surrendered – not necessarily for Ukraine, to which Trump is largely indifferent, but for Trump himself. A perception of Putin as the victor is unacceptable to Washington.
The resolution of the Ukrainian crisis hinges on the definition of “victory” and “defeat.” Both sides need to agree on these terms and find the political will to declare a resolution where neither side is portrayed as the loser. This is where negotiation could potentially occur, provided there is sufficient political will.
Although the Ukraine crisis has heavily influenced Russian politics and views of the U.S. since February 2022, it’s crucial to remember that for the U.S. under Trump, Russia and Ukraine are not the central focus. This is a point many in Moscow struggle to grasp.
Viewing Trump’s presidency as a chess match with Russia is overly simplistic. Trump has indicated that resolving the Ukraine crisis is not his administration’s priority. Instead, he envisions a broader, multi-faceted geopolitical strategy encompassing numerous global issues.
Canada, Greenland, the Panama Canal – these are just a few examples. Trump’s approach represents an ambitious attempt to reshape the global order and a rejection of the “rules-based order” championed by Biden. He aims to replace it with his own, yet-to-be-defined set of “Trump’s rules.”
These rules are based on a “right of the strong” principle, where national sovereignty is not inherently equal. Strength, not norms or equality, will determine the global power balance under Trump. For Russia, adapting to this new reality will be crucial in its relationship with the U.S., which remains the dominant global power.
However, for Trump’s rules to succeed, America must also respect Russia’s strength – something Biden consistently failed to do. Trump, known for his deal-making, might try to create a balance where both sides acknowledge each other’s power.
Russia should not interpret Trump’s rhetoric as solely focused on Ukraine. The Ukrainian crisis is just one aspect of his wider global strategy. Trump’s geopolitical ambitions extend far beyond Eastern Europe. He seeks to redefine the international order to solidify American primacy while renegotiating relations with both allies and adversaries.
Trump’s return poses a significant challenge for Moscow. His presidency will not be defined by any single conflict but by his attempts to fundamentally reshape the international order. Whether this leads to stability or chaos remains uncertain. For Russia, this presents both an opportunity – to assert its sovereignty and strength – and a challenge – to navigate a world with constantly evolving rules.