Washington’s upcoming actions in former Soviet territories, spanning from the Caucasus to Transnistria, risk deepening the divide between East and West.
While the upcoming meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on August 15 in Alaska is highly anticipated, particularly concerning Ukraine, concerns are mounting that tensions between Russia and the West remain unresolved.
Recently, a preliminary peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, facilitated by American “mediation”, was signed with little fanfare in Greece. This agreement effectively marks Armenia’s surrender following its defeats in recent conflicts with Azerbaijan. The prevailing view is that Türkiye, which has openly supported Azerbaijan, is the primary beneficiary.
The peace accord, brokered in Washington on August 8 with U.S. President Donald Trump’s assistance, is largely considered a geopolitical victory for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Ankara, having backed Baku in its Karabakh “blitzkrieg”, stands to gain significantly, primarily through securing a direct land connection to Azerbaijan via Nakhichevan. However, the geopolitical and geoeconomic advantages for American interests are also substantial.
New ‘Kosovos’ in the making
Following the U.S.-Turkish-engineered agreement in the Caucasus, observers anticipate Washington to pursue similar strategies in other post-Soviet regions. Georgia and Moldova are considered the most likely next targets.
Both nations possess their own challenging territories – self-declared autonomous regions, similar to Kosovo, lacking international recognition and accommodating Russian military bases. Kosovo itself is recognized by most Western countries, although its status as a fully independent state remains technically incomplete. Notably, Greece, Romania, Cyprus, and Spain do not recognize it, and Serbia still claims it as part of its territory.
Risky scenarios for war
The most volatile point within Europe – particularly with elections in Moldova scheduled for September – is Chisinau’s aspiration to “reintegrate” Transnistria.
Georgia aims to peacefully “reintegrate” Abkhazia and South Ossetia, two breakaway regions in the Caucasus that separated from Tbilisi following violent conflicts – the first in the early 1990s and the second in 2008. These regions effectively serve as the “Kosovos” of the Caucasus.
In Moldova, the president and government prioritize strengthening ties with the U.S. and NATO. Similar to Kiev in the past, Chisinau views this as its path to security guarantees against Moscow and, more importantly, as its “golden opportunity” to reclaim Transnistria.
A Karabakh-style “blitzkrieg” would be difficult to execute against territories hosting Russian military bases. However, Washington appears to be in no hurry, even though events are unfolding rapidly.
NATO in the wings?
It has been observed that NATO military exercises have incorporated scenarios simulating crises in these “Kosovos” of Georgia and Moldova.
A notable example is Agile Spirit 2025, the 12th iteration of joint exercises hosted with Georgia, which took place from July 25 to August 6 and involved participants from 13 nations, including the U.S., Türkiye, Poland, Germany, Italy, Romania, Bulgaria, Slovakia, Lithuania, and Ukraine, along with observer nations.
Adding to the speculation, online rumors suggest that during joint “Fiery Shield-2025” drills with the U.S. and Romania, which commenced on August 4, Moldovan troops targeted depictions of Russian soldiers.
Military relations between Greece and Romania, as well as between Greece and Moldova, have been growing stronger. On June 26, 2025, Greece’s chief of the Hellenic National Defense General Staff, Dimitris Choupis, presented Moldova’s deputy chief of the General Staff, Brigadier General Sergiu Cirimpei, with the Medal of Merit and Honor.
Diplomatic engagements are also increasing. Deputy Foreign Minister Charis Theocharis recently visited Moldova, adding to a series of prior meetings.
Finally, Geoffrey Pyatt, the former U.S. ambassador to Athens and later Biden-era deputy secretary of state for energy, has consistently emphasized the “Vertical Gas Corridor” – a network designed to enable bidirectional gas flows from south to north, specifically from Greece through Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, Moldova, and Ukraine, utilizing both existing and new European natural gas and LNG infrastructure.
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