Trump administration predicts gas prices will normalize in weeks, but its own Energy Department forecasts 2027

(SeaPRwire) –   The effects of the Iranian conflict are clearly visible at gas stations across the country, where neon signs display rising costs. Currently, fuel averages $3.84 per gallon, a 31% increase over the last month. Despite claims from the Trump administration, it may be a significant amount of time before prices drop back under the $3 mark.

Members of the administration have characterized the surge in fuel costs as a brief period of difficulty. During a weekend interview with NBC, Energy Secretary Chris Wright remarked that the public would only feel the impact for “a few more weeks,” suggesting there is a strong possibility prices will fall below $3 by the summer season.

A swift decline in fuel prices depends on a quick cessation of Middle East hostilities and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage for global oil exports. Even with a short conflict, however, there is no certainty that prices will immediately return to previous levels, as many forecasts—including those from the president’s own team—predict a lengthy recovery.

According to a recent report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), gas prices in 2026 are projected to average $3.34 per gallon. The outlook for the following year remains similar, with the semi-independent agency estimating an average price of $3.18 per gallon.

This represents a major change from February’s pre-conflict estimates, which predicted averages of $2.91 for 2026 and $2.93 for the next year. The EIA indicates that while prices are nearing their highest point and should stabilize as shipping through the strait resumes in April 2026, they are not expected to dip below $3 per gallon before the conclusion of 2027.

The EIA noted that these forecasts are uncertain and may be adjusted depending on the war’s duration, the extent of the maritime closure, and the speed at which Gulf oil producers can restart their facilities.

Energy Secretary Wright is joined by other administration figures in expressing a positive outlook. Kevin Hassett, head of the National Economic Council, told CBS that market indicators suggest a very quick resolution and significantly lower costs. President Trump also told NBC he expects prices to eventually drop lower than their pre-war levels. Now in its third week, the administration predicts the conflict will end within six weeks. To mitigate costs, Trump has released 172 million barrels from the strategic petroleum reserve as part of a global effort to increase market supply.

However, even a prompt end to the war might not bring immediate relief. A significant number of oil tankers are currently stalled at the Strait of Hormuz, a situation that could take weeks to clear. Furthermore, Gulf producers may require several weeks to repair infrastructure damaged by Iranian strikes and resume full operations.

The EIA’s data suggests that even if shipping restarts in April, the recovery of retail and refining margins will be a gradual process, keeping U.S. gas prices high for an extended period.

Officials have also described the rising costs as a required sacrifice for achieving military aims in Iran. Speaking with CNBC, Hassett admitted that fuel inflation would impact consumers but argued the campaign was vital for addressing Middle Eastern tensions.

He stated that such concerns are currently secondary, as the administration remains confident that the military operation is moving ahead of schedule.