SpaceX’s IPO is remarkable—however, it won’t bring 100x returns

(SeaPRwire) –   As SpaceX submits its initial public offering (IPO) paperwork, market sentiment is clearly optimistic. Analysts are already labeling it “one of the year’s most eagerly awaited market launches” and “one of the biggest IPOs in history.”

In contrast to the outdated IPO model of the past ten years, SpaceX highlights that going public is no longer a final step but a strategic boost— a means to tap into larger reserves of global capital, grow infrastructure, and scale to heights private markets can’t achieve on their own.

Yet with a private valuation exceeding $1 trillion, SpaceX— even though it’s a top-tier company run by a forward-thinking founder— also lays bare all the flaws in the U.S. IPO market: by the time firms hit public markets now, nearly all potential gains are already behind them.

The bar for going public in the U.S. has shifted significantly. Twenty years ago, companies often listed with valuations of a few hundred million dollars. Amazon’s 1997 IPO valued it at around $438 million. AOL, a landmark IPO of the early internet age, generated returns over 100x from its public launch to its highest point. Public investors got to be part of the entire value creation journey.

That’s no longer true today. Now, companies frequently need to hit a $2 billion to $3 billion valuation before they even think about an IPO. Stripe’s latest private market valuation was $65 billion. Databricks has a valuation over $40 billion. SpaceX itself has secured funding at valuations above $175 billion before any public listing. By the time these firms go public, they’re already global leaders.

A lot of the advantages that used to go to public investors are now taken in private markets. However, staying private for too long has actual downsides— like a fragile capital structure where ownership is held by a small group of insiders and a reliance on ongoing private funding. It also restricts wider investor involvement and puts off the price discovery and accountability that public markets offer. By trying to escape public market scrutiny, many companies have swapped it for other risks: lower transparency, less liquidity, and fewer ways to get stable, long-term capital.

SpaceX is a sign that public markets are open again on a large scale, but the numbers alone prove that by the time unicorns like SpaceX, Anthropic, Stripe, and Databricks go public, the explosive value growth has already ended.

So why do investors still focus so much on mega-unicorn IPOs?

The next wave of huge returns won’t come from trillion-dollar IPOs. They’ll come from smaller companies that list earlier in their life cycle, before global capital has fully valued them. In the past, the biggest gains have come from spotting category-defining companies before they became well-known— which means the real chance isn’t just 100x returns, but 400x— from companies valued at under $500 million. As iconic investor Peter Lynch put it, that’s how you gain “one up on Wall Street.”

SpaceX is merely a distraction.