OPEC+ maintained its plans to halt supply hikes in the first quarter, given that global markets are dealing with a surplus and the group is waiting to clarify whether the unexpected U.S. capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro will impact oil supplies.
Saudi Arabia and Russia, the leading key members, agreed on Sunday to keep production levels stable through the end of March—reaffirming a decision first made in November to suspend last year’s series of rapid increases. Delegates said they during the 10-minute video conference, and that it’s premature to assess how to respond to the unfolding situation.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies face a range of challenges: crude prices are near their four-year low, and widespread forecasts indicate that abundant supplies and weak demand could trigger a record surplus. This weekend’s major upheaval in is the latest in a string of geopolitical pressures spanning from Russia to Yemen, which are also clouding the market outlook.
“In an environment this fragile, OPEC+ is choosing caution, preserving flexibility rather than introducing new uncertainty into an already volatile market,” said Jorge Leon, an analyst at consultant Rystad Energy AS. “The political transition in Venezuela adds another major layer of uncertainty.”
While President Donald Trump stated that U.S. oil companies will invest billions to rebuild Venezuela’s crumbling energy infrastructure following the operation to seize Maduro, expecting an immediate, significant shift in the country’s exports. Trump noted that sanctions on Venezuelan crude will remain in place.
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Caracas may hold the world’s largest oil reserves, but years of under—investment, mismanagement, and international isolation have reduced the country to a fraction of its former status.
Venezuela currently produces around 800,000 barrels of oil per day—roughly a third of its output a decade ago and less than 1% of global supplies. Washington’s recent seizure and pursuit of tankers, alongside pressure on Maduro’s regime, helped cut output in the country’s critical by 25%.
Production could rise by about 150,000 barrels per day within a few months if sanctions are lifted, but returning to 2 million barrels per day or higher would require “massive reforms” and large investments from international oil companies, according to consultants at Kpler.
Other geopolitical threats affecting OPEC+ nations continue to simmer.
Tensions between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates—two core Middle Eastern heavyweights in the coalition—have flared over their support for opposing factions in the. Last week, a Saudi-led coalition carried out airstrikes against a rival group backed by the UAE.
Washington has sanctioned top Russian producers following the invasion of Ukraine, a conflict that’s also taking a toll on oil flows from fellow OPEC+ member Kazakhstan. On Friday, Trump pledged to “rescue”, which has been rocked by demonstrations after the local currency collapsed to a record low.
Nonetheless, global markets remain well-supplied for now. The in Paris forecasts a record oil surplus in 2026 as supplies from both OPEC+ and its competitors swell while demand growth slows. Trading giant says the market may confront a “.”
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Brent futures settled just below $61 a barrel on Friday, having slumped 18% last year—their biggest annual drop since the 2020 pandemic. Production in the U.S., Guyana, Brazil, and Canada continues to climb, while demand in top consumers like China has slowed.
In April, Riyadh and its partners stunned crude traders by rapidly restarting production idled since 2023, despite signs that global markets were comfortably supplied. Several delegates said the move aimed to claw back market share ceded in recent years to rivals like American shale drillers.
Before the latest pause, OPEC+ had formally agreed to restore about two-thirds of the 3.85 million barrels per day of output halted since 2023, leaving around 1.2 million barrels-a-day of these tranches yet to restart. However, actual volumes added have been smaller than advertised: some countries struggle to physically increase production, while others atone for earlier overproduction.
The eight OPEC+ members involved in restoring this production will hold another monthly video conference on Feb. 1.