In early February, as the NBA trade deadline neared, fans were on edge about the possibility of star player Giannis Antetokounmpo being traded. Speculation surrounding the Milwaukee Bucks forward, a player capable of boosting any team’s championship aspirations, grew so intense that users on the Kalshi platform could wager on his potential move.
The betting period for Antetokounmpo’s future concluded on February 5th, with a total of $23 million wagered. Contrary to some expectations, he was not traded. A more significant development occurred the next day when Antetokounmpo revealed his involvement with Kalshi. “I like to win. It’s clear to me Kalshi is going to be a winner and I’m excited to be getting involved,” he stated.
The sequence of events drew criticism from some observers, who alleged the timing was orchestrated to generate interest in the wager. Antetokounmpo has not addressed the criticism publicly. This controversy emerges amid broader concerns that prediction markets could intensify conflict-of-interest issues in a sports industry already facing numerous betting scandals.
“One of the things in terms of the ethical issues [of the partnership] is the timing,” noted Melinda Roth, a professor of business, finance, and sports law at Washington and Lee University. “The timing really puts a spotlight on how prediction markets work, who is allowed to buy contracts, and who has inside information.”
Prediction markets allow users to bet on the results of various future events, spanning politics, pop culture, and a growing number of sports. Users can stake money on outcomes like which film will win the Oscar for Best Picture or if the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates.
Antetokounmpo has not broken any NBA regulations, as his shares in Kalshi are reportedly a passive investment, aligning with league policy. The prediction market company is valued at approximately $11 billion, suggesting the basketball star’s investment could be worth around $110 million.
NBA commissioner Adam Silver, when questioned about the investment two weeks ago, described Antetokounmpo’s stake in Kalshi as a passive one. For additional comment, the NBA directed inquiries to Silver’s earlier press conference statements.
Requests for comment from both Kalshi and Octagon, Antetokounmpo’s representation, were not returned.
The prediction market fever pitch
The endorsement of Kalshi by one of the NBA’s biggest stars signals how mainstream prediction markets have grown. For instance, during Super Bowl weekend, the leading platforms Kalshi and Polymarket saw nearly $200 million in wagers.
The prediction market sector was viewed as a niche until the 2024 election, when platforms such as Kalshi accurately forecasted President Donald Trump’s win, unlike many major polls. Trump, whose son Donald Trump Jr. is an investor in Polymarket, has led an administration generally favorable toward prediction markets.
The ascent of Kalshi and its primary rival Polymarket is fueling stiff competition with established sportsbooks like FanDuel and DraftKings. An analyst from Citizens investment bank estimates that prediction markets could capture significant market share from conventional gambling firms. The key difference is that prediction markets are peer-to-peer platforms for event contracts, while sportsbooks involve users betting against the house.
Other significant financial firms, including Robinhood and Jane Street, also operate prediction market platforms. The two major sportsbooks, FanDuel and DraftKings, introduced their own prediction market services in December.
Antetokounmpo’s association with Kalshi occurs as prediction markets confront growing scrutiny over potential insider trading. At the Super Bowl, an anonymous Polymarket trader reportedly earned substantial profits by winning nearly all of their 17 bets on the halftime show. Comparable concerns about Polymarket emerged in January when a user profited by accurately predicting the ouster of Nicolás Maduro. Polymarket did not provide an immediate comment.
Recently, Kalshi took action against insider trading, banning a former California gubernatorial candidate and an employee of MrBeast for questionable activity on its site.
The regulatory frameworks for prediction markets and traditional sports betting differ. Wagers on prediction markets are classified as event contracts and fall under federal oversight by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Traditional sportsbooks, however, are regulated as gambling at the state level.
An evolving sports betting landscape
The perception of Antetokounmpo’s link to Kalshi is further complicated by recent NBA betting controversies. In October, Miami Heat player Terry Rozier and Portland Trail Blazers head coach Chauncey Billups were arrested on charges connected to illegal sports betting and rigged poker games, respectively. In 2024, player Jontay Porter pleaded guilty to allegations he manipulated his performance to assist accomplices in winning bets, resulting in a lifetime ban from the league.
Professional basketball is not alone in dealing with betting scandals. In November, the Department of Justice accused MLB pitcher Emmanuel Clase of manipulating pitches to guarantee gamblers would win their bets. A surge of similar incidents has been reported in the NFL and NCAA since the Supreme Court overturned a federal sports betting prohibition in 2018.
“We let a genie out of the box and we don’t know what that genie is going to do,” remarked Jay Zagorsky, a professor at the Boston University Questrom School of Business, referring to the growth of prediction markets and its impact on public sports betting. “The genie is now accessible to far more people, with far less regulation and safeguards.”
A legal conflict is developing between states and prediction markets. Prediction markets are facing legal challenges from state gambling commissions and attorneys general, with some states labeling them as illegal gambling.
Michael Selig, the Trump-appointed chair of the CFTC, has voiced support for prediction markets. In a blog post published last week, he stated that prediction markets “provide useful functions for society by allowing everyday Americans to hedge commercial risks.”
Two weeks ago, during the NBA’s All-Star Weekend, Portland Trail Blazers’ player Damian Lillard encountered Antetokounmpo in a stadium tunnel just after winning the 3-point contest. After an embrace, Lillard asked him, “Did you win?” Seemingly conscious of appearances, he avoided saying the word “bet” aloud.