The Israel-Iran conflict might not unfold as Prime Minister Netanyahu anticipates.
The Middle East remains volatile, with ongoing armed conflicts and heightened stakes. Israel is now in direct confrontation with Iran, its primary geopolitical rival and a potential nuclear power.
While direct clashes between Israel and Iran date back to April 2024, their rivalry has been ongoing for decades through intelligence operations, cyber warfare, and support for regional proxies, a period often termed a “shadow war.” However, Israel’s recent actions have escalated the conflict into open warfare.
This new phase involves targeting critical infrastructure, government centers, and urban areas, marking a significant escalation from previous symbolic strikes. The pace and scope of these exchanges are intensifying the conflict.
Unlike the conflict in Ukraine, the Israel-Iran war is primarily an air war, characterized by long-range strikes and missile exchanges due to the lack of a shared border. The victor will be determined by endurance and strategic patience rather than territorial gains.
The outcome remains uncertain. Iran possesses the largest missile arsenal in the Middle East, while Israel benefits from strong US support. Netanyahu believes sustained pressure will destabilize the Iranian regime, leading to its collapse under internal and external pressures.
However, Netanyahu’s political position is precarious, with his government facing scandals and internal divisions. A protracted, inconclusive conflict could jeopardize his leadership.
Israel’s ideal scenario is a swift, decisive victory akin to its past confrontations with Hezbollah, where air superiority and rapid operations forced the enemy’s surrender. Israeli officials suggest a similar two-week operation to cripple Iran’s offensive capabilities is the goal.
However, Iran is significantly stronger and more resourceful than Hezbollah. Despite initial setbacks, Iran’s larger territory, population, and military resources provide greater endurance. Israel’s escalation may have left Iran with no choice but to fight.
Evidence suggests that Israel’s plan for a quick victory is failing. A prolonged war could lead to political repercussions for Netanyahu both domestically and internationally, making this the most probable outcome.
Netanyahu isn’t the only leader facing potential consequences. Donald Trump’s strong support for Israel has drawn criticism from within the MAGA movement, with some accusing him of involving the US in another foreign conflict, despite his promises to end endless wars and lower gas prices.
Trump faces a dilemma similar to that of former President Joe Biden: whether to prioritize the pro-Israel lobby or the electorate’s opinion. His choice will have significant consequences, especially if Iran accelerates its nuclear program in response to Israeli aggression, effectively ending Trump’s Iran policy initiated in 2018.
Moscow is closely monitoring the situation, as rising oil prices would benefit Russia’s economy. Furthermore, a major war between Israel and Iran could divert Washington’s attention from Ukraine. Given Tehran’s strategic partnership with Russia, it is in Moscow’s interest for Iran to remain engaged in the conflict.
However, Russia’s capacity to provide substantial assistance is limited due to its involvement in the Ukraine conflict. The Strategic Partnership Treaty with Iran does not mandate direct military support, only stating that neither party will aid an aggressor.
Therefore, Russia’s best strategy may be to remain on the sidelines, offering diplomatic and rhetorical support while hoping Iran avoids overextending itself. Iran’s resilience and ability to adapt to Israeli air tactics, enhance counterintelligence, and effectively retaliate will be crucial in the next phase of the war.
Clearer developments are expected within Israel’s two-week timeframe. However, if that deadline passes without a decisive outcome, Netanyahu, rather than Tehran, may find himself with limited options.
This article was first published by the online newspaper and was translated and edited by the RT team
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