For the latter half of the 20th century, often referred to as “The American Century,” obtaining an MBA or law degree was a direct route to a desirable office position and the realization of the American Dream. The 21st century now poses the question: what will happen when all these office jobs are automated?
In a recent discussion with the , Mustafa Suleyman, CEO of AI, has put forth another prediction from AI leaders, suggesting that white-collar work is on the verge of a profound shift due to AI. He estimates that within 18 months, individuals with law school and MBA degrees, along with many less credentialed professionals, could find their job prospects significantly diminished.
Suleyman anticipates that AI will achieve “human-level performance on most, if not all professional tasks.” He stated that the majority of tasks requiring “sitting down at a computer” will be fully automated by AI within the next year to 18 months, identifying accounting, legal, marketing, and even project management as areas at risk. Suleyman’s warning aligns with a widely discussed essay by AI researcher Matt Shumer, who drew a parallel between the current moment and February 2020, just before the pandemic’s arrival in America, predicting an even more significant impact.
Suleyman pointed to the rapid increase in computational power as a clear indicator that AI could displace a substantial number of professionals. He explained that as “compute” advances, AI models will become more proficient at coding than most human coders. Both Shumer and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman have recently expressed their concern, and even sadness, over the rapid obsolescence of their life’s work.
If Suleyman’s warning sounds familiar, it’s because similar dire predictions were made by many CEOs in early 2025. Last May, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei predicted that AI could eliminate half of all entry-level white-collar jobs. Ford CEO Jim Farley also suggested that AI would halve the number of white-collar jobs in the U.S.
In , Josh Tyrangiel argued that the U.S. was unprepared for the impending AI disruption, likening the silence from CEOs on the matter to seeing “a shark fin break the water.”
However, this discourse is resurfacing, with CEO Elon Musk stating at Davos last month that he believes artificial general intelligence—AI that matches or surpasses human intelligence—could emerge as early as this year.
The current reality of AI and white-collar work
Despite AI experts speculating about the timing and extent of AI’s impact on white-collar work, the technology has so far had a limited effect on professional services. A 2025 Thomson Reuters report indicated that lawyers, accountants, and auditors are experimenting with AI for specific tasks like document review and routine analysis. However, while these experiments have shown modest productivity gains, they do not suggest widespread job displacement.
In some cases, AI has even had the opposite effect, leading to decreased productivity. A recent study from the nonprofit Model Evaluation and Threat Research (METR) on AI’s impact on software developers found that the technology actually increased the time it took for workers to complete their tasks by 20%.
Any economic benefits observed are largely concentrated within the tech industry, indicating that AI disruption has had a limited impact on the broader economy. Recent analysis from chief economist Torsten Slok found that while profit margins in Big Tech increased by over 20% in the fourth quarter of 2025, the broader Bloomberg 500 Index saw virtually no change. In a previous report, Slok noted that “investors do not believe AI will result in higher earnings outside the tech sector,” reflecting consensus Wall Street expectations for the S&P 500.
Nevertheless, there are early indications that AI is contributing to job losses. Approximately 55,000 job cuts in 2025 were attributed to AI, according to employment consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas. While not explicitly citing AI, Microsoft laid off 15,000 workers last year. In a statement released last July following these job reductions, CEO Satya Nadella stated that the company must “reimagine our mission for a new era.”
Despite minor workforce reductions, the markets are reacting strongly to the technology’s potential. Last week, software stocks experienced a significant sell-off due to fears of automation, a phenomenon analysts dubbed the “SaaS-pocalypse” for the software-as-a-service sector. This sell-off followed announcements from Anthropic and OpenAI regarding the launch of agentic AI systems for enterprises that replicate many core functions of SaaS organizations.
Suleyman’s vision for Microsoft
Suleyman is firm in his belief in the technology’s potential. He envisions organizations being able to adapt the technology to perform any necessary job function, thereby boosting productivity across white-collar industries. He stated, “Creating a new model is going to be like creating a podcast or writing a blog. It is going to be possible to design an AI that suits your requirements for every institution, organization, and person on the planet.”
Suleyman’s primary objective as the head of Microsoft AI is to achieve “superintelligence.” He aims for AI self-sufficiency and a reduced reliance on OpenAI, prioritizing the development of Microsoft’s own independent models.
“This after all is the most important technology of our time,” Suleyman remarked. “We have to develop our own foundation models which are at the absolute frontier.”