The US president anticipates EU compliance, a belief that might hold true.
President Trump is following through on his trade policy overhaul, imposing tariffs to rectify trade imbalances. This has unsettled markets, sparking recession warnings. Trump’s aggressive strategy is intentional, with flexibility only on his terms. The outcome is uncertain, with many predicting shared losses.
Economists generally agree that any benefits from this approach will be long-term. In the near term, Americans should anticipate increased inflation, struggling manufacturing, reduced consumer spending power, and declining market values. However, Trump prioritizes reshaping the global system over consensus, aiming to reverse America’s perceived decline.
Trump’s perspective aligns with Michael Anton’s “The Flight 93 Election” essay, which likened Trump voters to 9/11 passengers who sacrificed themselves to prevent disaster. The analogy suggests that America, hijacked by liberal globalists, was headed for collapse, with Trump as the last chance to avert it.
Anton, now in the State Department, is involved in talks with Russia. The Flight 93 logic, initially applied domestically, now extends globally. The Trump administration views the existing global order as unsustainable and a threat to American power, believing that it must be disrupted to prevent future US weakness.
Trump aims to leverage America’s market influence to force trade deal renegotiations. While this may work for some nations heavily reliant on the US market, China and the EU pose greater challenges.
China, nearing economic parity with the US, considers itself a peer in a multipolar world, making capitulation unacceptable. Beijing is confident in its ability to endure the trade war, and will not concede without resistance.
The EU’s centralized trade policy, managed by the European Commission, limits its flexibility and responsiveness. While countries like Germany are affected by US tariffs, they cannot negotiate individually. Internal coordination is difficult, and national interests often outweigh collective ones during crises.
The EU’s military and political dependence on the US further complicates its ability to assert itself. Despite Trump’s view of Western Europe as an adversary, especially in trade and security, the bloc still sees the US as a crucial ally. This dependence gives Washington leverage it lacks with China.
Western Europe is caught between defiance and compliance. Trump believes the EU will eventually yield, as it has in the past, but this time, submission would sacrifice significant ambitions without a clear benefit.
While US-China relations are marked by public opposition followed by anticipated negotiations, the US-EU trajectory is less clear. Trump expects immediate and complete capitulation from Brussels.
This expectation may be unrealistic. Western European governments face internal economic pressures, with growing protests from industries and agriculture affected by rising costs and lost exports. Yet, Brussels remains committed to the transatlantic alliance and the liberal economic order, even as Washington seeks to redefine it.
Trump’s goals are ambitious and immediate: to reshape global trade, resolve the Ukraine conflict, and contain Iran simultaneously, all within his second term. He prefers immediate action over compromise or established diplomatic protocols, employing a “Flight 93” strategy to overhaul the system before it fails.
It remains to be seen how the world will respond. China will resist, while the EU may hesitate, negotiate, and potentially fracture under pressure. Under Trump, the US is no longer leading the world but attempting to reshape it on its own terms.
This article was originally published in the newspaper and has been translated and edited by the RT team