The only shocking aspect of President Trump ordering federal investigators to draw up possible criminal charges against the widely respected Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell—who was appointed by Trump himself—is that anyone finds this development surprising.
Financial markets dipped at first but then recovered, as investors dismissed Trump’s Justice Department’s actions as the desperate bluster of a lame duck. Meanwhile, a rift emerged within the GOP, with members openly worrying about the inviolable independence of both the DOJ and the Federal Reserve.
For example, a prominent Republican on the Senate Banking Committee declared: “It is now the independence and credibility of the Department of Justice that are in question.”
Likewise, a Republican who chairs the House Financial Services Committee described the probe as “an unnecessary distraction that could undermine this Administration and sound monetary decisions.”
Even Trump’s own Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, pushed back against the president’s “revenge probe” targeting Powell.
The series of dramatic, consecutive prosecutions targeting individuals like Trump’s former National Security Advisor John Bolton, ex-FBI directors James Comey and Christopher Wray, New York Attorney General Letitia James, former CIA Director John Brennan, Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, former Homeland Security official Miles Taylor, Senator Adam Schiff, cybersecurity chief Christopher Krebs, and former special counsel Jack Smith (to name a few) is deeply concerning. Trump’s own messaging reveals he has personally ordered these prosecutions, showing a weaponization of the judiciary against people he views as political foes. Some critics compare this to the impulsive, emotional outbursts of the deranged Queen of Hearts from Alice in Wonderland, who shouts “off with their heads” at anyone who angers her. But this view misses the mark: these actions are much more calculated, part of a broader tactical strategy.
The charges that Powell lied to Congress over building renovation cost overruns are absurd and will almost certainly be thrown out of court. The claimed 40% cost increase might be factual, but it’s not a criminal offense—let alone a reckless one. The Fed’s actual renovations are costing $2.5 billion, which is 40% over budget because of inflation, while Trump acknowledged last month that his own East Wing White House ballroom demolition and construction project has also spiraled over budget. This is truly astonishing: the project only started six months ago, and as someone with building experience, Trump should be able to estimate construction costs accurately.
The Fed’s renovation costs are reasonable, considering this is the first full-scale overhaul of the Marriner Eccles Building in about 90 years (it was constructed in 1937). In comparison, the nearby Hart, Russell, and Dirksen Senate Office Buildings and the Cannon House Office Building have had ongoing major renovations throughout the decades.
Moreover, no matter what kind of common cost overruns there are, none of this money comes from U.S. taxpayers. The Fed is paying for the renovations using its own budget because it’s fully self-sufficient operationally—funded mainly by the investment income from the U.S. Treasury bonds it holds, not by taxpayer dollars allocated by Congress.
Ambush That Backfired
Trump tried to ambush Powell on national TV this summer during a tour of the construction site, but it backfired—with Trump embarrassing himself and Powell him — Trump’s claim that the renovations had ballooned to $3.1 billion was quickly shown to be incorrect by the Fed chair, who pointed out that figure included a separate, already-completed renovation of a different building.
On the surface, Trump is upset that the Federal Reserve isn’t cutting interest rates more quickly and deeply—and that’s why the chair explains he’s being targeted: “This new threat is not about my testimony last June or about the renovation of the Federal Reserve buildings … Those are pretexts. The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President.”
A full 71% of the 200 CEOs at our recent Yale CEO Summit voiced concerns that Trump’s administration had already weakened the Federal Reserve’s independence, and 81% said they favor Governor Chris Waller as Powell’s potential successor when the chairman’s term expires this spring—assuming Waller will strengthen Fed independence.
So if this legal attack isn’t an impulsive outburst, what’s the strategic reason behind it? Just like Trump’s false claim this month that the Venezuela attack was motivated by U.S. oil producers’ interests (which they firmly rejected, saying Venezuela is “uninvestable”), this move is a diversionary tactic by Trump. In our upcoming book, Trump’s Ten Commandments (Simon & Schuster), we call this Trump’s “Wall of Sound” strategy—used to shift the public conversation away from his declining poll numbers: an end-of-year national survey found only 36% of Americans approve of his performance, while 57% disapprove. Even more, over half of MAGA/Trump voters don’t support Trump’s handling of the Epstein files, affordability, healthcare, and ICE/immigration policies—support for which has dropped to just 30% in recent polls.
Trump has succeeded in his goal of making every media outlet stop its nonstop focus on his weaknesses in key domestic policies. Additionally, he uses three other tactics in this Fed/Powell diversion: he relies on his “hub & spoke” leadership model (where no agencies are independent of control), he crushes opponents with targeted retaliation, and he skillfully uses the classic mass communication propaganda tool called the “sleeper effect”—where a false message is repeated relentlessly until it finally gains traction.
These are four of the 10 strategies in Trump’s playbook that we refer to as his “Ten Commandments.” He chooses them carefully, not out of impulse—despite his bold claims. Trump isn’t tone-deaf or stupid; he’s “dumb like a fox.” But even foxes, which are usually symbols of intelligence and cunning, eventually fall prey to their own overconfidence in their cleverness.