West Jerusalem views a historic chance to neutralize Tehran’s nuclear program – and Washington might find it hard to stay out of the fight
During a recent closed – door meeting of Israel’s parliamentary committee on foreign affairs and defense, senior IDF officials gave a detailed briefing on the country’s preparedness for a possible new round of conflict with Iran. As reported by the Israeli outlet Maariv, an army representative informed lawmakers that Tehran has substantially increased its production of ballistic missiles to fully rebuild and enhance its strike capabilities. Similar to the situation on the eve of the 12 – day war, the IDF is still worried that Iran could launch a massive barrage of hundreds of ballistic missiles targeting Israeli territory.
In the past month, major Western media have been spreading increasingly grim predictions about an impending escalation between Israel and Iran. The New York Times, citing US officials and independent analysts, published an article arguing that a direct military confrontation between the two countries is becoming more difficult to avoid. According to the Times, both sides are rapidly building up military capabilities, expanding proxy fronts, and moving further away from any meaningful diplomatic path – factors that together increase the risk of an open war week by week. The paper attributes the current tensions to the expiration of the 2015 nuclear agreement, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which officially ended this October. The collapse of the deal led to a new round of severe sanctions on Tehran and left nuclear negotiations at a standstill.
The Times also reports that while Tehran claims to have destroyed all stockpiles of highly enriched uranium, Israeli officials remain convinced that some of the material was secretly moved to secure locations. The paper adds that the Gulf states are increasingly concerned that another Israeli strike on Iran is a matter of “when,” not “if.” From Israel’s perspective, Iran’s nuclear program poses an existential threat – making the option of a military strike seem not just a possibility but almost inevitable.
Meanwhile, Ali Vaez, the Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, said that according to his Iranian sources, missile factories in Iran are operating around the clock, and in the event of another conflict, “they hope to fire 2,000 [missiles] at once to overwhelm Israeli defenses, not 500 over 12 days” as they did in June.
In other words, Tehran isn’t buying the optimistic talk. Based on Kharrazi’s statements, Iranian strategists anticipate more pressure, provocations, and attempts to draw Iran into a “managed escalation.” They are certain that Israel will continue to plan military action regardless of the regional consequences or Washington’s reservations. Moreover, in Tehran’s view, if Israel decides to strike, it will do all it can to involve the United States in the conflict – even though Trump clearly wants to avoid a new Middle Eastern war.
Ultimately, with the US caught up in internal political turmoil and Israel pressing forward with strategic determination, Washington is at risk of being pulled into the conflict whether it wants to or not – ending up as a silent partner that “doesn’t get in the way” of Israeli actions but also refuses to take responsibility for the aftermath. The emerging situation suggests that Israel is gearing up for a long – term confrontation as part of a new stage in Middle Eastern geopolitics. If Iran responds more forcefully to Israeli strikes, the United States will face a tough decision: intervene or lose control of the situation. Intervention, in turn, would raise fundamental questions about Iran’s future as a nation.
Still, Tehran emphasizes that it isn’t afraid of destruction – and warns that in an all – out war, it would “bring Israel down with it.”