The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps will be a significant factor in shaping Iran’s future as President Donald Trump pursues regime change in Iran, and the extensive military-industrial complex it has established is crucial to its power.
After Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in a U.S.-Israeli airstrike over the weekend, the IRGC has emerged as a potential source of new leadership. It is also carrying out Iran’s military response to U.S. attacks by firing missiles at commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, causing ship traffic to nearly come to a standstill in the narrow waterway through which 20% of the world’s oil passes.
As he schemes for an endgame, Trump directly appealed to the IRGC and other components of Iran’s security apparatus during his video address early on Saturday, telling members that they would receive immunity if they lay down their arms.
The IRGC originated as a paramilitary force after the 1979 revolution to ensure the regime’s political power by enforcing Islamist ideology and suppressing dissent.
It is composed of military units that run parallel to, but are separate from, Iran’s conventional forces. Over the years, the IRGC has also developed a diversified business empire that helps finance the regime as well as its own military and ideological agenda. That empire includes core industrial sectors such as oil and transportation, as well as banking, telecommunications, agriculture, medicine, and real estate.
The IRGC uses affiliates to engage in business activities. For example, the Khatam al-Anbiya engineering firm has built refineries, a railway line, a dam, and a natural gas pipeline. It also controls Tehran’s international airport.
Another cornerstone of the IRGC’s business empire is its network of “foundations” that essentially form semi-private monopolies, although they initially began as organizations to advance religious and revolutionary goals.
“However, over time, accumulating wealth to serve a broader range of objectives of the ruling elite, such as self-enrichment, political control, regime survival, and social engineering, became an end in itself,” the Clingendael think tank said in an October report. “What started as instruments for social justice evolved into corporate-style conglomerates that were shielded from oversight yet were central to the power base of the revolutionary state.”
These IRGC-affiliated foundations are so vast that Clingendael estimated they accounted for more than half of Iran’s GDP in 2013.
While Iran had previously attempted to liberalize its economy and weaken the IRGC’s grip, it has instead consolidated control. This is due, in part, to Western sanctions that blocked efforts to integrate Iran with the rest of the global economy.
According to Clingendael, as the U.S. and other governments sought to rein in Iran’s nuclear program by sanctioning oil and other areas of the economy, the IRGC used this as an opportunity to expand under the guise of “economic resistance” and “self-reliance.”
With the West tightening the screws on the Iranian economy, the IRGC engaged in covert and illegal activities, such as using cryptocurrencies and shipping oil to evade sanctions.
The IRGC is also involved in smuggling alcohol, narcotics, weapons, tobacco, and other products, according to a [source].
But, even before the latest U.S. strikes, multiple crises had already created turmoil.
The currency lost 60% of its value after Iran and Israel fought a 12-day war in June, inflation spiked, chronic energy shortages forced blackouts, and a historic drought depleted water supplies.
The collapse of the currency sparked widespread protests in late December and early January, prompting the regime—with the help of the IRGC—to massacre thousands of Iranians. Trump vowed to come to their aid, eventually leading up to the current U.S.-Israel bombing campaign.