Over the past fortnight, since the initiation of U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran, President Donald Trump has found himself increasingly on the defensive politically.
He has become more irritated with press reporting and has been unable to articulate a compelling rationale for starting the war or a plan to conclude it that connects with an American public worried about military casualties, skyrocketing oil costs, and falling markets. Even portions of his own base are doubting his strategy, and his general polling figures are slipping.
At the same time, Moscow is receiving an early war boost after Trump relaxed sanctions on certain Russian oil shipments. This action, paired with climbing crude prices, weakens the long-standing effort to hinder President Vladimir Putin’s capacity to fight in Ukraine.
Democrats, meanwhile, are still recovering from Trump’s 2024 election victory. With the balance of Congress up for grabs in the November midterms, the party has unified against Trump’s Iran strategy, citing economic instability as evidence that Republicans have broken their pledges to reduce living expenses.
“I think Democrats are well-positioned for this November and the midterms,” stated Kelly Dietrich, CEO of the National Democratic Training Committee, an organization that prepares party supporters for campaigns and candidacies.
Dietrich remarked that the recent two weeks demonstrate a failure in long-term strategy by the Trump administration. “They’re flying by the seat of their pants, and rest of us are paying the price,” he said.
Trump seeks help securing the Strait of Hormuz
This Saturday, Trump spent several hours at his golf club in West Palm Beach, Florida, prior to going to a private fundraiser for his MAGA Inc. super PAC held at his Mar-a-Lago resort.
The previous weekend, he also played golf at a different South Florida property a day after attending the dignified transfer ceremony for six U.S. soldiers killed in the Iran conflict. The number of American fatalities increased further this week.
Trump has escalated his criticism of media reporting on the war, writing on Saturday: “Media actually want us to lose the War.” His broadcasting regulator later warned it could revoke licenses unless outlets “correct course.”
The president—who did not inform allies beyond Israel of his Iran war plans—also indicated for the first time that the U.S. would require international assistance to safeguard oil tanker passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Movement there has been heavily disrupted, causing chaos in global energy markets.
Iran has declared its intention to continue assaults on energy infrastructure and to use its near-blockade of the strait as bargaining power against the U.S. and Israel. One-fifth of globally traded oil passes through this channel.
“Many Countries, especially those who are affected by Iran’s attempted closure of the Hormuz Strait, will be sending War Ships, in conjunction with the United States of America, to keep the Strait open and safe,” Trump wrote on Saturday, adding later, “this should have always been a team effort.”
It remained uncertain, however, whether this multinational initiative was imminent or merely an aspiration. This ambiguity stemmed from a subsequent post where he wrote: “Hopefully China, France, Japan, South Korea, the UK, and others, that are affected” will “send Ships to the area so that the Hormuz Strait will no longer” be under threat from Iran.
The White House offered no additional explanation for Trump’s statements. Britain’s defense ministry said on Saturday it was “currently discussing with our allies and partners a range of options to ensure the security of shipping in the region,” but gave no specifics.
Trump initially promised that U.S. naval vessels would escort tankers through the strait when the war began, but this has not occurred. “It’ll happen soon. Very soon,” he asserted while boarding Air Force One for Florida on Friday evening.
Nevertheless, ongoing issues regarding the strait challenge Trump’s recent declaration at a Kentucky rally that, “We’ve won.”
“You know, you never like to say too early you won. We won,” he said. “We won the, in the first hour, it was over.”
The war has far-reaching political implications
This week, the U.S. Treasury Department announced a 30-day waiver on Russian sanctions designed to release stranded Russian oil shipments at sea, aiming to alleviate supply shortfalls resulting from the Iran war.
This move comes even as analysts note that soaring oil prices, driven by Persian Gulf production disruptions, are aiding the Russian economy. Moscow depends on oil income to fund its war in Ukraine, where sanctions had become an increasing burden.
Several key U.S. allies have condemned the waiver as strengthening Putin. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy labeled the sanctions relief “not the right decision” and “certainly does not help peace,” arguing it results in a “strengthening of Russia’s position.”
As midterm campaigns intensify, Trump was questioned on Friday night about his message to voters who feel gasoline is too costly.
“You’re going to see a very big decrease in the prices of gasoline, gas, anything having to do with energy, as soon as this is ended,” Trump responded.
The duration of the conflict will amplify midterm election concerns. Senator Rand Paul, a Kentucky Republican, noted on Fox News Channel this week that persistently high fuel prices could lead to a “disastrous election” for the GOP.
The Iran situation has also split Trump’s “Make America Great Again” supporters, pitting those who back the military action against others who recall his campaign vows to end foreign wars.
Prominent conservative voices like Tucker Carlson and Megyn Kelly have strongly criticized Trump. Despite this, Trump maintains that he founded the MAGA movement and that its followers will remain loyal to him on all matters.
The current political upheaval leads some Democrats to forecast midterm successes comparable to the 2018 “blue wave” election during Trump’s initial term.
“Democrats just have to keep reminding people that he made a promise to bring prices down, and they’re still going up,” Democratic strategist Brad Bannon said regarding Trump. “And now they’re going to go up even more because prices in gasoline can increase prices of everything else, including at the grocery store.”