The conflict in Iran is altering global flight routes, endangering Southeast Asia’s vital tourism industry. Missile and drone strikes by Iran have closed major Middle Eastern aviation centers such as Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Doha, severing well-traveled paths for European and American tourists heading to Southeast Asia’s beaches and temples. Travel experts now worry that nations like Thailand, Cambodia, and Indonesia could soon experience a decline in visitor numbers.
“There are no direct flights between Europe and destinations like Bali and Cambodia,” says Brendan Sobie, an independent aviation analyst based in Singapore. “These countries, which rely heavily on tourism, are also more affected because of the cascading impact on their economies.”
Tourism is a cornerstone of Southeast Asia’s economy. In 2024, it made up 9.4% of Cambodia’s GDP and 12% of Thailand’s.
Major Gulf airlines, including Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Etihad, have canceled thousands of flights to and from the Middle East. This has knock-on effects on some Southeast Asian carriers; Malaysia Airlines, for example, depends on Qatar Airways to transport tourists from the U.S., Europe, and the Middle East into Southeast Asia.
“Malaysia Airlines doesn’t operate many flights to Europe, except to London and Paris,” said Mayur Patel, the Asia head at aviation consultancy OAG. “A large portion of their codeshare agreements were through Doha with Qatar Airways, and if planes can’t fly into Doha, it will definitely restrict the flow of passengers.”
How have global airlines been hit?
Airline networks across the globe have been disrupted by airspace restrictions and soaring jet fuel prices, which have doubled since the start of the Iran conflict. Airlines are pausing certain routes to the Middle East for weeks, if not months. Carriers are also adding fuel surcharges to flights, and Air New Zealand withdrew its guidance on Tuesday due to rising fuel expenses.
“In the first week of the conflict, we observed a 50% drop in total bookings,” said Lucy Jackson Walsh, the co-founder and managing director of Lightfoot Travel, a luxury travel company with offices in Dubai, London, Singapore, and Hong Kong. Bookings for Middle Eastern destinations—around 15% of Lightfoot’s business—disappeared almost instantly.
“We’re redirecting our focus toward regional Asia-to-Asia travel and trips to more distant destinations like Australia, which don’t require routing through the Middle East,” she noted.
Supply chain disruptions caused by closed airspace and waterways are also delaying aircraft maintenance, repair, and operations (MRO) and worsening existing delays in aircraft deliveries from manufacturers like Airbus and Boeing.
“There is a shortage of aerospace spare parts and components, which may be shipped from Europe or the U.S.,” said Kent Yar, an independent aerospace consultant. “Manufacturing airplane parts also requires raw materials… everything comes down to supply chain problems.” He estimates that airplane spare parts have increased in price by 15% since the Iran conflict began.
Do any airlines stand to benefit?
Still, some Asian carriers like Singapore Airlines and Hong Kong’s Cathay Pacific, which operate several direct routes between Asia and Europe, might hold an advantage over other disrupted airlines. “Existing non-stop flights between Asia and Europe have already been rerouted due to the Russia-Ukraine war and do not necessarily use Iranian or Middle Eastern airspace,” Sobie explained.
But this will be a minor positive compared to the overall damage to the sector.
“I don’t think anyone is pleased,” Sobie said. “Some airlines will see a boost in load factors and revenue on certain routes—and that’s expected—but this does not offset the negative impact of the crisis on the industry as a whole.”
Even so, some in the industry hope for recovery if or when the conflict subsides.
“What I’m hoping for is a surge in ‘revenge travel’ once the conflict dies down,” said Walsh of Lightfoot. “Similar to what happened after the COVID-19 pandemic, when markets rebounded and travel took off again.”