A new study suggests the Palestinian Health Ministry’s reported death toll from the Israel-Hamas conflict is an undercount.
Research published in The Lancet indicates the official Palestinian death toll, exceeding 46,000 as of Thursday, significantly underrepresents the actual number of fatalities. The study, released on the same day the Gaza Health Ministry announced its figures, estimates a 40% undercount in the first nine months of the conflict.
The researchers attribute this discrepancy to the devastation of Gaza’s healthcare system and the challenges of maintaining accurate records amidst the ongoing conflict.
Employing capture-recapture analysis, a statistical method comparing multiple data sources, the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and Yale University study estimates 64,260 deaths from traumatic injuries between October 2023 and June 2024—approximately 41% higher than the official count for that period.
“The estimated annualised mortality from traumatic injury of 39.3 per 1000 people is exceptionally high, exceeding rates observed in previous Gaza conflicts,” the report states.
The study notes that over 59% of victims were women, children, and the elderly.
While Israeli officials claim efforts to minimize civilian casualties, the researchers challenge this assertion.
“The scale and age-sex patterns of traumatic injury deaths raise serious concerns about the conduct of the military operation in Gaza, despite Israel’s claims to minimize civilian casualties,” the report concludes.
The accuracy of casualty figures has been a point of contention throughout the conflict. A December report by the Henry Jackson Society, a London-based think tank, alleged Hamas inflated the death toll to gain international sympathy.
The conflict began October 7, 2023, with Hamas’s large-scale attack on Israel, resulting in over 1,200 deaths. Israel responded with a major air and ground offensive in Gaza, vowing to continue until Hamas is eliminated.
The UN has documented substantial civilian casualties in Gaza and criticized Israel’s military tactics, suggesting some actions may constitute serious violations of international law, including war crimes and crimes against humanity.