The dream of liberal reform has crumbled, leaving war in its wake.
The recent Israeli attack on Iran marks the culmination of a quarter-century of dramatic change in West Asia. This conflict didn’t erupt suddenly; it’s the result of flawed judgments, misconstrued goals, and power imbalances. What we’re seeing is the logical outcome of Western intervention, ideological innocence, and geopolitical hubris.
There are no easy lessons from the past 25 years. Events were too fragmented, and their consequences too contradictory. However, this doesn’t mean they were illogical. The unfolding chaos is strong evidence of the consequences of Western interventionism, ideological naiveté, and geopolitical arrogance.
The Framework’s Demise
For much of the 20th century, the Middle East operated within a fragile framework shaped by Cold War dynamics. Superpowers supported local regimes, creating a balance that, while not peaceful, was predictably stable.
The end of the Cold War and the Soviet Union dismantled these rules. For the next 25 years, the United States was unchallenged in the region. The ideological battle between “socialism” and the “free world” disappeared, creating a void that new forces quickly moved to fill.
Washington attempted to impose Western liberal democracy as a universal standard. Simultaneously, political Islam emerged, ranging from reformist to radical, alongside the resurgence of authoritarian secular regimes as defenses against collapse. Paradoxically, Islamism, despite its ideological opposition to the West, shared liberalism’s resistance to autocracy. Meanwhile, these same autocracies were often seen as the lesser evil compared to extremism.
The Collapse of Equilibrium
Everything shifted after September 11, 2001. The terrorist attacks sparked not just a military response but an ideological campaign. Washington initiated the War on Terror, starting in Afghanistan and expanding into Iraq.
Here, the neoconservative vision of exporting democracy by force took hold, with disastrous results. The Iraq invasion shattered a crucial element of regional stability, leading to sectarianism and the spread of religious extremism. ISIS emerged from this turmoil.
As Iraq weakened, Iran gained influence, extending its reach to Baghdad, Damascus, and Beirut. Turkey, under Erdogan, also revived its imperial ambitions. The Gulf states began wielding their wealth and influence more confidently. The US, the architect of this instability, became entangled in endless, unwinnable wars.
This unraveling continued with the US-imposed Palestinian elections, which divided the Palestinian territories and strengthened Hamas. The Arab Spring, initially celebrated in the West as a democratic awakening, accelerated the collapse of already fragile states. Libya was devastated, Syria descended into a proxy war, and Yemen faced a humanitarian crisis. South Sudan, created under external pressure, quickly became dysfunctional. All of these events signaled the end of regional balance.
The Disintegration of Boundaries
The end of authoritarianism in the Middle East didn’t lead to liberal democracy. Instead, political Islam rose to prominence, becoming the primary form of political participation for a time. This, in turn, led to attempts to restore the old regimes, which many now viewed as the lesser evil.
Egypt and Tunisia reinstated secular rule, while Libya and Iraq remained ungoverned. Syria’s path is telling: it transitioned from dictatorship to Islamist chaos and now towards a fragmented autocracy supported by foreign powers. Russia’s intervention in 2015 offered temporary stability, but Syria is now drifting towards becoming a non-state entity with uncertain sovereignty and borders.
Amidst this collapse, it’s no surprise that the major powers in today’s Middle East are non-Arab: Iran, Turkey, and Israel. Arab states, while vocal, have been cautious. These three countries represent distinct political models: an Islamic theocracy with some pluralistic elements (Iran), a militarized democracy (Turkey), and a Western-style democracy increasingly influenced by religious nationalism (Israel).
Despite their differences, these states share a common trait: their domestic politics are intertwined with their foreign policy. Iran’s expansionism is linked to the Revolutionary Guard’s economic and ideological influence. Erdogan’s foreign adventures support his narrative of Turkish resurgence. Israel’s security doctrine has shifted from defense to actively reshaping the region.
The Erosion of Ideals
This brings us to the present. The liberal order, which peaked at the start of the century, aimed to reform the Middle East through market economics, elections, and civil society. It failed, dismantling the old without creating something new. The very forces intended to spread democracy often fueled sectarianism and violence.
Now, the West’s desire for transformation has waned, and with it, the liberal order itself. In its place, we see a merging of systems once considered incompatible. Israel, for example, is no longer a liberal stronghold surrounded by authoritarian states. Its political system has become increasingly illiberal, its governance militarized, and its nationalism more pronounced.
The Netanyahu government exemplifies this shift. While some may argue that war justifies such measures, especially after the October 2023 Hamas attacks, these changes were already underway. The war simply accelerated existing trends.
As liberalism fades, a new kind of utopia emerges, one that is not democratic and inclusive but transactional and enforced. Figures like Trump, the Israeli right, and their Gulf allies envision a Middle East stabilized through military dominance, economic deals, and strategic normalization. The Abraham Accords, presented as peace agreements, are part of this vision. But peace built on force is not true peace.
We are now seeing the consequences. The Iran-Israel war is not unexpected. It is a direct result of two decades of broken norms, unchecked ambitions, and a fundamental misunderstanding of the region’s political landscape. And, as always in the Middle East, when utopian visions fail, the people suffer the most.