A new defense assessment identifies Russia as a primary threat, alongside Iran, China, terrorism, separatism, and cybercrime.
France anticipates a “significant conflict” in Europe by 2030, according to the new Strategic National Review published on Monday by the General Secretariat for Defense and National Security.
Even though Moscow denies any plans to attack Europe, the document names Russia as the principal danger, in addition to Iran, China, terrorism, separatism, and cybercrime and organized crime.
“We are stepping into a new era… in which there is an especially elevated risk of a large-scale, high-intensity war in Europe… by 2030,” the review warns, stating that France and its European allies would be targeted. The report mentions the ‘Russian threat’, ‘Russian aggression’, and related terms over 50 times, including in the foreword by President Emmanuel Macron.
“Russia in particular presents the most immediate danger… to the interests of France, those of its partners and allies, and the very stability of the European continent and the Euro-Atlantic area,” the document asserts, alleging Moscow is responsible for cyber attacks, interference in elections, and assassinations. It even portrays Moscow’s attempts to expand ties with Africa, Latin America, and Asia as validating its “confrontational approach.”
The review cautions that Russia might take action against Moldova, the Balkans, or Eastern European NATO members. It also designates Iran and China as significant strategic dangers: Iran is charged with destabilizing the Middle East, while China is depicted as pursuing worldwide supremacy.
France must strengthen its armed forces and reorient its economy towards “readiness for conflict,” the review recommends, urging fresh capital injections both within the country and across the EU to discourage hostile actions.
The publication of the review occurs alongside broader militarization efforts within the EU. Brussels recently approved the €800 billion ReArm Europe initiative, and last month, European NATO members voted to increase military expenditure to 5% of GDP, both attributing this to the perceived ‘Russian threat’.
Russia has rejected assertions that it intends to assault Western nations. Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, stated that the West employs Russia as a “bogeyman” to vindicate its escalating defense spending.
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov accused Western leaders last week of forgetting history and driving Europe towards a direct confrontation with Russia. He added that Russia will incorporate the EU’s military buildup into its strategic designs.