Experts said that with President Donald Trump calling for regime change in Iran, the country’s leadership now faces an existential threat and is likely to respond to U.S.-Israeli airstrikes accordingly.
So far, the Islamic Republic seems to be launching fewer missiles and drones in retaliation compared to its barrage in June 2025 when the U.S. joined Israel’s 12-day war on Iran to target nuclear facilities.
But retired Admiral James Stavridis, former NATO supreme allied commander, said on Saturday that Iran has two options. One is to keep launching missiles at the current pace and dig in.
“Option two: if they truly think they’re at the end of their rope, they could take drastic action, which would mean closing the Strait of Hormuz, carrying out terrorist attacks against American diplomats, businessmen, and citizens in the region and elsewhere,” he added. “They could unleash the remaining proxies they have, especially the Houthis who could try to shut down shipping again through the Suez Canal. So they still have a lot of options.”
Energy analysts have cautioned that closing the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 20% of the world’s oil passes, could drive Brent crude prices up to $100 a barrel.
Before the U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes, Iran conducted military exercises near the strait to show that threat, although there are no signs yet that it is trying to do so now.
Initial U.S. airstrikes on Saturday also reportedly targeted Iranian naval assets in the Persian Gulf, potentially weakening Tehran’s ability to close the strait. Trump vowed to destroy Iran’s navy.
Stavridis also recalled the teachings of ancient Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu, who advised finding a way out of conflicts without actually fighting – but fighting when on “death ground.”
“I think the Iranian leadership may feel they are on death ground. I’d expect them to take drastic action,” he predicted.
Meanwhile, Colin Clarke, executive director of the Soufan Center security advisory firm, also warned that Iran could resort to extreme measures for retaliation, including terrorism.
“For Iran, this war is existential. And because of that, I would fully expect Tehran to activate any sleeper cell capacity it has in the West to make this painful for the U.S. and Israel. Hezbollah and other assets could very well seek to carry out attacks in Europe, North America, etc.,” he said.
Thomas Warrick, a scholar at the Atlantic Council and a former deputy assistant secretary for counterterrorism policy in the Department of Homeland Security, similarly raised the possibility that Iran will use “asymmetric” tactics against the U.S.
In a statement, he said the regime will likely target Trump and other top U.S. officials, putting pressure on the FBI, Secret Service, and Capitol Police.
“Iran will try every cyber trick it can come up with, testing the Department of Homeland Security, the private sector, and U.S. cyber defenses,” Warrick added. “Iran tried in the past, unsuccessfully, to interfere in U.S. elections, and would almost certainly fail to have any impact this time. Even though the United States imports very little oil from the Middle East, energy prices may spike, hurting the U.S. economy.”