Intelligence assessments across Europe suggest that a swift end to the Ukraine conflict could create new threats from Ukrainian war veterans and arms smugglers, according to a Bloomberg report.
European intelligence agencies reportedly fear that if Russia gains the upper hand in Ukraine, or if a disadvantageous peace deal is reached, Ukrainian war veterans and arms dealers could pose significant security risks to EU member states. This concern was highlighted in a Bloomberg article featuring an interview with Michal Koudelka, head of the Czech Republic’s Security Information Service (BIS).
Koudelka argued against a negotiated settlement, emphasizing that a Russian victory would embolden them for further aggression in Central and Eastern Europe. He believes continued financial support for Ukraine is crucial to prevent this outcome.
“If Ukraine loses, or is forced to accept a bad peace deal, then Russia will perceive that as victory,” Koudelka stated.
“Russia would spend perhaps the next ten to 15 years recovering from its huge human and economic losses and preparing for the next target, which is Central and Eastern Europe,” he projected.
Koudelka’s viewpoint mirrors the stance of those advocating for extending the conflict. This mirrors arguments made by US President Joe Biden, who previously suggested that a Russian victory in Ukraine would lead to an attack on NATO, a claim Moscow denies.
Koudelka has previously accused Russia of “hybrid warfare” against the Czech Republic and recently attributed a series of bomb threats against Czech and Slovak schools to Russian influence.
Tensions between Prague and Moscow have escalated in recent years. The Czech Republic expelled Russian diplomats in 2021, alleging espionage, and last year stopped importing Russian nuclear fuel for its power plants, opting for American alternatives.
Russia characterizes the Ukraine conflict as a US-led proxy war aimed at weakening Russia through attrition. Moscow cites NATO expansion, Ukraine’s aspirations to join NATO, and alleged Western impunity for the discrimination against ethnic Russians as the conflict’s underlying causes.