Deploying U.S. troops in Venezuela might turn into a ‘force protection nightmare’ amid potential insurgency threat, retired colonel cautions

President Donald Trump kept the possibility of deploying U.S. ground troops in Venezuela open as he made a vow to .

While the military achieved a remarkable feat by extracting dictator Nicolás Maduro without losing any American lives and with only minimal aircraft damage, maintaining order in Venezuela presents a different challenge.

When asked about the potential future role of U.S. forces and whether there would be troops on the ground in Venezuela, .

“We’re not afraid of having boots on the ground,” he told reporters at a briefing on Saturday. “We’re not scared of it. We don’t mind stating it, and we’ll ensure that country is governed properly. We’re not acting in vain.”

Whether the U.S. will pursue full regime change remains unclear as , and Trump claimed Vice President Delcy Rodríguez is willing to do what Washington desires.

However, the U.S. record following the removal of oppressive leaders is mixed, noted retired Air Force Col. Cedric Leighton. Successes in post-World War II Germany and Japan contrast with prolonged counterinsurgency efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan over the past two decades.

“The risk with Venezuela is that it could also be a hostile environment, which would put U.S. forces in significant danger,” he told CNN.

In such a scenario, the Venezuelan military has had long-standing plans indicating it would engage in guerrilla warfare, Leighton added.

An insurgency could involve Venezuelan forces retreating into the hills or hiding in urban slums while attacking U.S. troops. 

“These are the types of situations we must absolutely prepare for and could very well turn into a force protection nightmare if not handled carefully and if proper governance isn’t established to essentially prevent that from happening,” he warned.

Military personnel are seen as many residents are seen leaving their homes located within the Military Complex of Fuerte Tiuna in Caracas, Venezuela on January 3, 2026.
Boris Vergara—Anadolu via Getty Images

The remaining leaders of the Maduro regime were defiant. Rodríguez , calling the U.S. raid “an atrocity that violates international law.”

Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello urged Venezuelans to “trust in the political leadership and military” and “take to the streets” to defend the country.

“These rats attacked and they will regret their actions,” he said, referring to the U.S.

And Defense Minister Gen. Vladimir Padrino López said Venezuela will resist the presence of foreign troops, adding “They have attacked us but will not break us.”

Trump said Saturday that U.S. oil companies will rebuild Venezuela’s energy infrastructure and spend billions of dollars that will eventually be recouped through export revenue.

If there’s an insurgency, U.S. troops or security contractors would presumably be called on to protect company employees and assets.

That would likely require a much larger military presence than currently exists. Ahead of Maduro’s capture, the Pentagon said there were about 15,000 troops in the Caribbean last month. By comparison, hundreds of thousands of troops were in Iraq and Afghanistan during those wars.

For now, U.S. forces remain in the region at a high state of readiness, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Dan Caine told reporters.

“The American armada remains positioned and ready, and the United States retains all military options until its demands have been fully met and satisfied,” Trump said. “All political and military figures in Venezuela should understand that what happened to Maduro can happen to them.”