OpenAI’s ChatGPT, which initially led among individual users, seems to be losing ground as competitors such as Google’s Gemini narrow the gap in its app and web market share— a change that might hinder the company’s rumored plans to go public later this year.
According to mobile intelligence data first reported by [source], OpenAI’s ChatGPT app market share dropped from 69.1% in January 2025 to 45.3% in 2026. During the same timeframe, Apptopia data indicates Google’s Gemini chatbot app grew its market share from 14.7% to 25.2%. Elon Musk’s Grok has also seen rapid growth, reaching its highest market share to date at 15.2%—up from 1.6% a year earlier, per the data.
OpenAI’s losses aren’t limited to app market share; competitors have also made gains in web traffic. According to [source], Gemini’s main website, Gemini.google.com, significantly closed the gap with ChatGPT.com in December 2025, with 28.38% more traffic, while ChatGPT’s traffic fell by 5.59%. Preliminary data shows Gemini exceeded 2 billion monthly visits for the first time in January 2026, while ChatGPT recovered after two straight months of decline—though it still hasn’t returned to its October 2025 peak.
During Alphabet’s (Google’s parent company) fourth-quarter earnings call on Wednesday, CEO Sundar Pichai revealed that Gemini had crossed 750 million monthly active users—up from 650 million in the prior quarter. Although ChatGPT still probably leads with around 810 million monthly active users, the gap is shrinking quickly.
During the call, Pichai noted that the release of Gemini 3—Google’s most advanced model—was a “positive driver” of growth. The launch was boosted by the viral popularity of Nano Banana Pro, Google’s AI image generator, which grabbed public interest with its ultra-realistic outputs. The competitive squeeze on OpenAI has become so intense that CEO Sam Altman issued an eight-week “code red” in December, pushing employees to refocus on core products.
While app and web traffic numbers highlight key trends in consumer adoption, they only offer a partial view of the larger AI market. Some app usage might involve people using the bots for work—either with authorization or as “shadow AI”—but they could also be using them for personal tasks. The data doesn’t include API usage, which is how most enterprises integrate AI tools.
In the enterprise space, Anthropic has gained notable traction. Per [data] from Menlo Ventures—an Anthropic investor—the AI lab holds [X share], versus 25% for OpenAI and roughly 20% for Google Gemini.
These trends illustrate an AI landscape growing more competitive, with OpenAI facing challenges on several fronts: losing consumer market share to Google’s Gemini, competing with Anthropic’s enterprise progress, and dealing with fast-growing rivals like Grok. A continued decline in ChatGPT’s consumer market share could complicate OpenAI’s potential IPO—particularly if Anthropic, which is said to be exploring a public offering, goes public before them.
Apptopia’s data also found that 20% of AI users now use multiple apps, implying users are finding different tools valuable for different tasks—creating an opportunity for AI companies to establish niches. For instance, while Claude lags in total app users, it leads in engagement. In January, the average daily user spent 34.7 minutes on the app—the highest among rivals—dropping only slightly from a strong December showing.
“ChatGPT created the category, but as viable alternatives have grown, users are naturally expanding their toolkit,” said Tom Grant, Apptopia’s VP of Research. “The market might end up resembling streaming—where a handful of major players dominate, but multiple companies can carve out niches through product differences instead of just network effects.”