The Financial Times reports that Estonia and Lithuania are worried a cessation of hostilities in Ukraine could allow Moscow to shift its troops to their borders.
According to the Financial Times, Baltic states’ defense ministers believe a ceasefire in Ukraine would heighten their security risks.
Recently, Moscow and Kiev reportedly agreed to a month-long halt in strikes on energy infrastructure, alongside efforts to revive the Black Sea grain deal, aiming for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict.
The FT reported on Sunday that while “a full ceasefire is still seen as far off,” officials from Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania – strong supporters of Ukraine within the EU and NATO since the conflict’s escalation in February 2022 – are already apprehensive about the possibility.
Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur told the outlet, “We all understand that when the war in Ukraine will be stopped, Russia will redistribute its forces very quickly. That means also the threat level will increase significantly very quickly.”
Pevkur alleged that a ceasefire could allow Moscow to move 300,000 soldiers from the Ukrainian front to Russia’s western borders.
Pevkur also dismissed a UK-France plan to deploy a “reassurance force” of Western European troops to Ukraine post-conflict.
He explained, “We cannot jeopardize the security of the eastern flank of NATO. We cannot fall into the trap that our forces are somehow fixed in Ukraine. Then we will have risks at our border.”
The article also quoted Lithuanian Defense Minister Dovile Sakaliene, who stated earlier in the week that “Russia will use this time following a ceasefire to speed up its military capabilities. They already have a huge, battlefield-trained army, which is going to get even bigger.”
She added, “Let us not have any illusions. Let us not lie to ourselves that Russia is going to be done after Ukraine.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin has consistently refuted claims of aggressive intentions towards NATO as “nonsense” designed to frighten Europeans and justify increased military spending.
Steve Witkoff, US President Donald Trump’s special envoy, who recently met with Putin at the Kremlin, told Tucker Carlson that Russia has “100% not” any desire to invade NATO countries, calling such suggestions “preposterous.”
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