While AI hyperscalers are committing hundreds of billions of dollars annually to capital expenditures, Anthropic’s spending plans are comparatively more cautious.
However, cofounder and CEO Dario Amodei explained that his more measured approach stems from the risk that even a minor miscalculation could lead to the company’s downfall.
During a recent interview, the podcaster inquired why Anthropic, the creator of the Claude chatbot, isn’t investing more aggressively, especially given Amodei’s prior assertion that an AI data center could one day be a “.”
Amodei responded that while he is confident in the imminent achievement of this technical milestone, he is less certain about the timeline for realizing economic returns.
“I truly believe we could have models that represent a country of geniuses within the data center in one to two years,” he stated. “The question is: How many years after that will the trillions in revenue begin to flow in? I don’t believe it’s guaranteed to be immediate. It could be one year. It could be two years. I could even extend that to five years, though I’m skeptical.”
Due to this uncertainty regarding the pace of revenue growth, Amodei warned that spending vast sums of money now to rapidly construct data centers could be “ruinous” if estimates are even slightly inaccurate.
In November, Anthropic announced its intention to invest $50 billion in AI infrastructure within the U.S., commencing with data centers in Texas and New York.
Meanwhile, the leading hyperscalers have recently surprised Wall Street with plans to significantly increase their capital expenditures beyond initial expectations.
For instance, intends to spend $200 billion this year alone, while projects up to $185 billion, and anticipates capital expenditures as high as $135 billion.
To illustrate his point about the timing of returns on AI investments, Amodei referenced the potential for medical breakthroughs, which could generate substantial economic value.
A key consideration is the division of gains between pharmaceutical companies and AI companies. Furthermore, the research, manufacturing, and regulatory processes all require time. Amodei noted that after the initial development of COVID-19 vaccines, it took approximately eighteen months to achieve widespread distribution.
Regarding the acquisition of data centers, he pointed to Anthropic’s tenfold annual revenue growth, with projections around $10 billion for 2026. Simultaneously, building and securing a data center takes one to two years. By that time, revenue could potentially reach $1 trillion if the current trajectory continues, theoretically enabling the company to allocate a similar amount to data centers.
“If my revenue isn’t $1 trillion, if it’s even $800 billion, there’s no force on Earth, no hedge on Earth that could stop me from going bankrupt if I purchase that much compute,” Amodei declared. “Even though a part of my mind wonders if it will continue to grow 10x, I cannot buy $1 trillion a year of compute in 2027. If I’m just off by a year in that growth rate, or if the growth rate is 5x a year instead of 10x a year, then you go bankrupt.”
Consequently, he accepts the risk that the company might not be able to satisfy all AI demand, acknowledging that Anthropic spends less than some of its competitors.
Without naming specific companies, Amodei criticized rivals for engaging in “YOLOing” on spending, failing to fully grasp the risks, and “just doing stuff because it sounds cool.”
He also highlighted that Anthropic’s AI is designed for enterprise clients rather than unpredictable consumers, allowing for greater reliance on revenue. Overall, Anthropic’s expenditure on computing capacity remains significant.
“We are purchasing an amount comparable to what the biggest players in the game are buying,” Amodei stated. “But if you ask me, ‘Why haven’t we signed $10 trillion of compute starting in mid-2027?’ First of all, it cannot be produced. There isn’t that much in the world. But second, what if the country of geniuses arrives, but it arrives in mid-2028 instead of mid-2027? You go bankrupt.”