Six years following the pandemic’s reshaping of the U.S. population landscape, the outflow from the country’s biggest coastal cities hasn’t just persisted—it has expanded to include a once-thriving boomtown. A January 2026 report from the Institute notes that Americans are still leaving New York City and Los Angeles in large numbers, but Miami is now seeing people depart at similarly concerning rates.
Data from the fourth quarter of 2025 shows Miami and Los Angeles leading major U.S. cities in absolute population losses; they also had the largest year-over-year declines. While Florida served as a primary haven for remote workers in the early 2020s, its key hub—Miami—is now experiencing a reversal: it recorded the sharpest year-over-year percentage population drop among major metropolitan areas tracked by the bank.
Miami’s outgoing mayor, Francis Suarez, told in October that he was concerned about Zohran Mamdani’s likely (and now confirmed) election in New York City—yet he also acknowledged that “definitely a gentrification happening” in his city. Two months later, affordability worries played a key role in Miami , Eileen Higgins. Miami currently holds the top spot on UBS Global Wealth Management’s “,” with Los Angeles, San Francisco, and New York as the only other American cities on the ranking.
Austin, Denver, and Philadelphia topped the list for the biggest gains in new residents, as the U.S. affordability crisis shows the Sunbelt isn’t exempt. The Institute also remarked that “the Midwest is still having a moment,” with Indianapolis and Columbus leading in absolute population growth.
Affordability crisis hits the Sunbelt
The main force behind this shift appears to be the same one that emptied city centers in 2020: the hunt for value. “Affordability and climate remain the two biggest magnets—and the two biggest push factors,” the report notes.
While Miami still draws wealthy transplants from New York and Boston, these inflows are no longer enough to offset the mass departure of existing residents. “Miami’s migration tells a striking story,” the authors write—losing population even with continued strong inflows from major cities such as New York and Boston.
Nearly 70% of those leaving Miami in 2025 relocated to other parts of the South, favoring more affordable nearby markets like Orlando, Tampa, and Atlanta. The data suggests former Miamians are looking for locations that are “somewhat close to home” but less financially straining.
Los Angeles and New York continue to shrink
On the West Coast, the trend remains consistent with what was established earlier in the decade. Los Angeles saw a net population decline of 0.8% year over year, as residents scattered to cheaper western hubs.
“Los Angeles’ migration map shows a city in motion—and not in its favor,” the report states. While high costs are the primary friction point, environmental concerns (specifically wildfire risk) are also prompting Angelenos to leave. However, they aren’t going far; moves to Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Seattle made up a large portion of the outflow, proving residents are seeking another version of West Coast life that is easier to navigate financially.
New York City posted the second-largest absolute outflow of people in 2025. While the city remains a global hub, nearly 45% of outbound New Yorkers are heading south. Interestingly, Philadelphia has emerged as a major beneficiary of New York’s churn: more than one in four new residents in Philadelphia hailed from NYC, as movers sought a lower cost of living within a short train ride of their former home.
“Philadelphia tells an interesting story,” the authors write—boasting the third-largest inflow for the fourth quarter of 2025, with more than one in four new residents saying “farewell to all that” and leaving New York. The City of Brotherly Love is drawing in many residents from across the Northeast, too, showing that it continues to function as a “regional magnet for affordability-minded movers while remaining a relatively short drive from neighboring big cities.” At the same time, nearly a third of inbound migrants were from the South, versus 40% of Philadelphians moving farther south in search of warmer climates and lower costs.
The era of the regional shuffle
The broader takeaway from the 2026 data is that the “Great Reshuffle” has slowed down and become more localized. The total number of Americans moving has more than halved since 2021.
“The big story isn’t a national reshuffle—it’s people trading one nearby city for another that fits their budget and lifestyle a little better,” the report concludes.
Even popular growth engines like Austin and Denver are showing signs of this maturation. While Austin continues to grow and attract talent from across the country, it is also seeing outflows to smaller cities in the South, suggesting it is no longer immune to the affordability concerns plaguing the coasts.
Six years post-pandemic, the data indicates that Americans are no longer abandoning entire regions. Instead, they are “reshaping their lives within them,” hunting for value without sacrificing familiarity—but the big coastal hubs are more likely to be abandoned than embraced.
For this story, journalists used generative AI as a research tool. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing.