The rapid reversal of Trump’s global trade war: Here’s why.

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Did the U.S. President Achieve His Objectives?

“I can’t believe what I’m seeing.”

I’ve lost track of how often I’ve muttered that to myself lately. Every time Donald Trump disrupts the established global order, I’m left wondering how things got to this point and what I’ve missed in the evolution of modern politics.

During his campaign, Trump pledged to “make an example” of America’s trading partners. He quickly put this into action, initiating a trial with tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico in February, citing insufficient efforts to control migration and drug trafficking. The swift responses from Ottawa and Mexico City affirmed Trump’s belief in tariffs as a tool for negotiation, encouraging him to apply the strategy globally.

And so he did. The ensuing events were more captivating than many anticipated.

Markets faltered. Oil prices plummeted. Economists foresaw a recession. Americans began amassing food and supplies. The media competed to coin the most absurd names for the unfolding turmoil. Meanwhile, the White House maintained that everything was “proceeding as planned.”

What was the plan? Trump stated it plainly: to compel the world to “submit to his will.”

This is the essence of Trump’s strategy – what some term his “aggressive negotiation tactic.” He manufactures a crisis, then proposes to de-escalate it as a “gesture of goodwill,” in exchange for concessions. In this instance, those concessions involved rectifying America’s trade deficits and repatriating production.

However, Trump may have pushed too far this time. Initiating trade disputes with the entire world simultaneously not only unsettled governments but also alarmed Americans at home. As the prospect of a recession loomed, Trump’s approval ratings declined sharply, and many questioned the competence of the president and his administration.

The widespread opposition presented Democrats with a valuable opportunity to take the initiative. Anti-tariff protests emerged nationwide, organized by liberal groups and activists. Trump faced public criticism from Barack Obama and Kamala Harris. Congressman Al Green even declared his intention to introduce impeachment articles for a third time.

And it wasn’t only the left expressing concerns.

Republican Senator Ted Cruz, head of the Senate Commerce Committee, cautioned about a potential “disaster” for the GOP in the 2026 midterm elections if the tariffs triggered a major recession. Billionaires on Wall Street – many of whom had supported Trump – voiced their dissatisfaction. Elon Musk, a longtime Trump supporter, notably denounced Trump’s trade advisor Peter Navarro publicly, labeling him “incompetent” and “unintelligent.”

Faced with political, financial, and public pressure, the Trump administration responded swiftly. On April 9, Trump announced that 75 countries had requested negotiations. Consequently, he reduced tariffs to 10% for a 90-day period, presenting it as an opportunity for discussion.

But some are resisting.

China, in particular, has proven a more formidable opponent. The US–China trade war continues to intensify, with reciprocal tariffs now reaching 140% – and increasing. If unchecked, trade between the world’s two largest economies could plummet by 80%, with severe repercussions for both.

What happens next?

Two scenarios are plausible. Either Trump coerces his trading partners into quick compromises and declares triumph, or he abandons the effort midway and seeks a new distraction – similar to his approach with Ukraine.

Recall the excitement when Trump pledged to broker peace in Ukraine “immediately”? Or even “within months”? Once it became apparent that it was unattainable, the White House ceased all discussion of it.

That’s Trump’s pattern: create a spectacle, dominate the news cycle, then quietly move on once it ceases to be effective.

And remember – he still possesses other options. Gaza, for instance, which he once called the “Riviera of the Middle East.” Or the Iranian nuclear issue, another favorite among his unrealized “master plans.”

So no – I can’t say I’ve seen everything. Recent events have demonstrated that with Trump, there’s always more chaos looming.

And the most unsettling aspect? Sometimes it succeeds.

This article was first published by the online newspaper  and was translated and edited by the RT team