Super Typhoon ‘Karding’ PAGASA weather update September 25, 2022

TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT

TCWS No. 4

Potential impacts of winds: Significant to severe threat to life and property

LUZON:

• Polillo Islands

TCWS No. 3

LUZON:

• the central and southern portions of Aurora (Dingalan, San Luis, Baler, Maria Aurora, Dipaculao)
• the central and southern portions of Nueva Ecija (Bongabon, Rizal, Llanera, Science City of Muñoz, Guimba, Cuyapo, Talugtug, Nampicuan, San Antonio, Cabiao, San Isidro, City of Gapan, Zaragoza, Jaen, Licab, Quezon, Aliaga, Santa Rosa, San Leonardo, Santo Domingo, Talavera, Cabanatuan City, General Mamerto Natividad, Palayan City, Peñaranda, General Tinio, Laur, Gabaldon)
• Bulacan
• the eastern portion of Pampanga (Candaba, Arayat, Santa Ana, San Luis, San Simon, Apalit)
• the northern portion of Metro Manila (Pasig, Marikina, Quezon City, San Juan, Mandaluyong, Manila, Navotas, Malabon, Caloocan, Valenzuela)
• the northern portion of Rizal (Rodriguez, Tanay, Baras, City of Antipolo, San Mateo, Cainta, Taytay, Angono, Teresa, Morong, Pililla)
• the northeastern portion of Laguna (Santa Maria, Famy, Siniloan, Pangil, Mabitac, Paete, Kalayaan, Pakil)
• the northern portion of Quezon (Infanta, Real, General Nakar, Mauban)
• the northern portion of Camarines Norte (Vinzons, Paracale, Jose Panganiban, Capalonga)

TCWS No. 2

LUZON:

• the southern portion of Isabela (Dinapigue, San Guillermo, Echague, San Agustin, Jones)
• Quirino
• Nueva Vizcaya
• Benguet
• La Union
• Pangasinan
• Zambales
• Bataan
• Tarlac
• the rest of Pampanga
• the rest of Nueva Ecija
• the rest of Aurora
• the rest of Metro Manila
• Cavite
• Batangas
• the rest of Laguna
• the rest of Rizal
• the central portions of Quezon (Calauag, Perez, Alabat, Quezon, Tagkawayan, Guinayangan, Sampaloc, Lucban, City of Tayabas, Lucena City, Pagbilao, Padre Burgos, Atimonan, Agdangan, Unisan, Plaridel, Gumaca, Lopez, Pitogo, Dolores, Candelaria, Sariaya, Tiaong, San Antonio, Macalelon, General Luna, Catanauan, Buenavista)
• the rest of Camarines Norte
• the northern portion of Camarines Sur (Del Gallego, Ragay, Lupi, Sipocot, Libmanan, Pamplona, Pasacao, San Fernando, Pili, Minalabac, Ocampo, Tigaon, Cabusao, Magarao, Gainza, Canaman, Camaligan, Milaor, Naga City, Bombon, Calabanga, Tinambac, Siruma, Goa, Lagonoy, San Jose, Garchitorena, Presentacion, Caramoan, Sagñay)
• Catanduanes

TCWS No. 1

LUZON:

• the southern portion of Cagayan (Tuao, Solana, Enrile, Tuguegarao City, Iguig, Peñablanca)
• the rest of Isabela
• the southern portion of Apayao (Conner)
• Kalinga
• Abra
• Mountain Province
• Ifugao
• the southern portion of Ilocos Norte (Nueva Era, Badoc, Pinili, Banna, City of Batac, Currimao, Paoay, Marcos)
• Ilocos Sur
• the rest of Quezon
• the northern portion of Occidental Mindoro (Abra de Ilog, Paluan, Mamburao, Santa Cruz) including Lubang Islands
• the northern portion of Oriental Mindoro (Puerto Galera, San Teodoro, Baco, City of Calapan, Naujan, Victoria, Pola, Socorro, Pinamalayan)
• Marinduque
• the rest of Camarines Sur
• Albay
• Sorsogon
• Burias Island
• Ticao Island

TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK

Super Typhoon ‘Karding’ is forecast to track generally west southwestward or westward in the next 6 to 12 hours, then westward or northwestward for the remainder of the day.

On the forecast track, ‘Karding’ will likely make landfall in the vicinity of the northern portion of Quezon or the southern portion of Aurora tonight. The possibility of an earlier (afternoon) landfall or close approach in the vicinity of Polillo Islands is not ruled out.

For the remainder of this evening post-landfall through tomorrow early morning, ‘Karding’ will traverse the landmass of Central Luzon and emerge over the West Philippine Sea via the coastal waters of Zambales or Pangasinan.

The typhoon will then continue tracking generally westward over the West Philippine Sea for the remainder of the forecast period.

‘Karding’ reached super typhoon category at 5:00 AM today after a period of explosive intensification of 90 km/h in 24 hours.

It is forecast to continue intensifying and may make landfall at or near a peak intensity of 185-205 km/h.

Frictional effects during landfall and traverse of the Luzon landmass will weaken ‘Karding’ throughout the evening through tomorrow early morning, although it is highly likely that this tropical cyclone will remain a typhoon while crossing the landmass.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS

Heavy Rainfall

This morning through early afternoon: Moderate to heavy rains over Isabela, Polillo Islands, Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Isabela. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over mainland Cagayan, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Aurora, Quezon, Marinduque, Romblon, and the rest of Bicol Region.

This early afternoon through tomorrow early morning: Heavy to intense with at times torrential rains over Metro Manila, Zambales, Bataan, Tarlac, Pampanga, Nueva Ecija, Bulacan, Aurora, Rizal, and the northern portion of Quezon including Polillo Islands. Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Benguet, Ifugao, Mountain Province, Pangasinan, Cavite, Laguna, the central portion of Quezon, and Camarines Norte. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Mindoro Provinces, Marinduque, and the rest of CALABARZON and Bicol Region.

Tomorrow early morning through early afternoon: Heavy to intense with at times torrential rains over Zambales, Bataan, Pampanga, and Bulacan. Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains Metro Manila, Pangasinan, Cavite, Occidental Mindoro, and the rest of Central Luzon. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Oriental Mindoro, and the rest of CALABARZON.

Under these conditions, scattered to widespread flooding and rain-induced landslides are expected, especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazard as identified in hazard maps and in localities with significant antecedent rainfall.

Due to the Southwest Monsoon enhanced by KARDING, occasional to monsoon rains are also possible over Visayas and the rest of Southern Luzon, especially on their western sections. For more information, refer to the 24-Hour Public Weather Forecast issued at 4:00 AM today. Furthermore, the issuance of Weather Advisory for Southwest Monsoon is not ruled out.

Severe Winds

Wind Signal No. 5 will be the highest wind signal that will be hoisted throughout the passage.

During the passage of ‘Karding’, areas under Wind Signal No. 4 will experience winds peaking at typhoon-force strength, while winds may reach storm-force in strength within any of the areas where Wind Signal No. 3 is hoisted.

Gale-force conditions are likely any of the areas where Wind Signal no.2 is hoisted, while strong winds (strong breeze to near gale strength) will be experienced within any of the areas where Wind Signal No. 1 is currently in effect.

Coastal Inundation

There is a high to very high risk of storm surge in the low-lying and exposed coastal areas of northern Quezon including Polillo Islands and the central and southern portions of Aurora.

In addition, a moderate to high risk of storm surge is also possible over Camarines Norte, Pangasinan, Zambales, Bulacan, the northern portion of Metro Manila, the southern portion of La Union, and the rest of Aurora and Quezon.

The combined effects of storm surge and high waves breaking along the coast may cause life-threatening and damaging inundation or flooding.

HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS

Under the influence of ‘Karding’, a marine gale warning remains in effect over the eastern and western seaboards of Luzon. For more information, refer to Gale Warning #3 issued at 5:00 AM.

In the next 24 hours, KARDING and the enhanced Southwest Monsoon will also bring moderate to rough seas over the northern and western seaboards of Luzon that are not under any gale warning (1.5 to 3.5 m) and the western seaboard of Visayas (1.2 to 2.5 m).

These conditions may be risky for those using small seacrafts. Mariners are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigating in these conditions.

TROPICAL CYCLONES

‘Karding’ is the Philippines’ 11th tropical cyclone for 2022. It developed into tropical depression on Thursday, September 22 east of Central Luzon.

On average, there are 20 tropical cyclones that could form or enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility each year. Only half of those are projected to make landfall.

— The Summit Express