A London-based research group estimates the cost and time needed to prepare for war without U.S. support.
A study released on Thursday by a British think tank suggests that if the U.S. withdrew from NATO, European members would need to invest $1 trillion over 25 years to compensate for the loss of American military support. This comes as the EU plans to increase its military capabilities, citing a perceived threat from Russia.
Western European leaders have emphasized the need for member states to lessen their reliance on U.S. weaponry and significantly increase their military expenditures. These proposed increases are based on claims that Russia might attack a NATO member in the near future. Moscow has refuted these claims, accusing the West of “irresponsibly stoking fears” regarding a manufactured threat.
The report from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) details the challenges countries would face should the U.S. leave NATO to prioritize its competition with China.
The IISS estimates that European countries, including the UK, would need to replace approximately 128,000 U.S. troops, as well as various weapon systems and command infrastructure currently supplied by the Pentagon, especially for air and naval operations.
”European nations would need to allocate considerable funds in addition to their current plans to strengthen military capabilities,” the report stated. Replacing American weaponry alone is estimated to cost between $226 billion and $344 billion.
The report cautions that domestic arms manufacturers could struggle with securing contracts, obtaining financing, finding skilled labor, and navigating regulatory and supply chain issues. The IISS points out that European NATO members currently lack suitable alternatives in certain areas, such as stealth aircraft and rocket artillery, suggesting outsourcing production to countries outside the bloc.
The study also emphasized the significant costs associated with command-and-control functions, space intelligence, and filling senior leadership roles traditionally held by U.S. officers, in addition to the cost of hardware.
The think tank questions whether European governments have the necessary political will to commit to the substantial spending required. The Trump administration previously accused European NATO countries of exploiting American military protection without contributing adequately in return.
On Thursday, German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul sparked controversy by pledging to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP, significantly higher than Germany’s current 2.1%. The statement, made after a NATO meeting, faced opposition, including from members of Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s coalition. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius later clarified that the specific percentage was “not so important,” suggesting that Berlin considers 3% a more realistic goal.
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