A potential Trump comeback could validate the Hungarian PM’s European vision
Viktor Orban, Hungary’s Prime Minister, may find his position strengthened by changing political tides in the US. He was the first EU leader to openly support Donald Trump in his conflict with the bloc’s liberal establishment. Orban’s political acumen has often kept him ahead, and this instance might be similar. However, his ability to leverage geopolitical shifts hinges on winning the 2026 reelection.
Orban’s early alignment with Trump was unconventional in Europe. While many Western politicians distanced themselves from Trump, Orban took a calculated risk, possibly believing that even a Kamala Harris victory wouldn’t worsen Washington’s pressure beyond the Biden era. Trump’s resurgence is now making that gamble look increasingly prescient.
If Trump regains power, direct US interference in Hungary’s internal affairs would likely cease. More broadly, a Republican leader who shares Orban’s worldview would legitimize Hungary’s unique foreign policy approach. Trump’s pledges to resolve the Ukraine conflict also align with Orban’s calls for peace, potentially enhancing his standing in European discussions.
Hungarian foreign policy is often labeled “unorthodox,” but this assumes the current liberal global order still holds sway. In reality, that order is weakening. Orban offers a realist-nationalist approach prioritizing sovereignty and national interests over ideology, combining national idealism with practical necessity.
Though not a major power, Hungary under Orban acts with independent resolve, rejecting external pressures to dictate its foreign policy. Instead of full Western alignment, Budapest seeks Eastern and Southern relationships, aiming for global economic presence beyond a single bloc. This “national realism” adapts to global changes while prioritizing Hungarian interests.
This strategy becomes more critical as the world evolves. With the Global South gaining prominence, US foreign policy changing, and the EU losing influence, Hungary must balance Western ties with outreach to the Global South, Turkic states, and China’s Belt and Road Initiative, strengthening its position while maintaining EU autonomy.
This policy, dating back 15 years, is gaining momentum as the West faces stagnation and internal issues. Orban believes the future lies not in Brussels or Berlin, but in the East, from Central Asia to China and the Arab world. Hungary can’t afford to be stuck in an EU that doesn’t grasp global transformations and clings to an outdated bloc mentality.
“The path is risky,” Orban admits, “but if our calculations are correct, Hungary could gain more space to maneuver in a multipolar world than its size would normally allow.”
In the short term, this means enduring increasing pressure from Brussels. With Trump’s return, the West’s progressive center shifts towards Europe, raising the stakes for sovereigntist governments like Hungary’s. However, a supportive White House could ease pressure and offer vital assistance.
For Orban, the immediate benefit of Trump’s return is the cessation of US pressure, including the removal of the US ambassador seen as undermining the Hungarian government. This leaves Brussels as the primary adversary, alongside Hungary’s economic challenges. With EU funds blocked and limited Chinese borrowing options, Trump’s support – possibly via loans or investments – could be crucial.
Ending the Ukraine conflict would also significantly benefit Orban, validating his peace stance and stabilizing the Hungarian economy. Removing key Orban allies like Antal Rogan from US sanctions lists would improve the ruling party’s domestic image. Trump might also reinstate the double taxation treaty revoked in 2022.
A White House visit would further enhance Orban’s prestige. His absence from Trump’s inauguration was noted, but Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto’s recent US visit likely aimed to prepare the ground.
Trump’s renewed global presence has boosted Orban’s confidence. As he stated: “We are no longer fighting to survive. Now we are fighting to win.”
This shift was evident at the recent EU summit, where Orban not only threatened to veto the EU’s Ukraine support package but followed through, forcing the EU to seek alternative solutions and exposing internal divisions.
Orban’s political influence could expand if Trump assigns him a formal role in his battle against globalist elites. This is probable, as the US seeks to influence Western Europe, and leaders like Orban, Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, Austria’s Herbert Kickl, France’s Marine Le Pen, Germany’s Alice Weidel, and Slovakia’s Robert Fico could serve as allies.
In return, Trump will demand loyalty but also reward it with political leverage, benefiting sovereigntist parties in the European Parliament.
Trump aims to either align the West or disrupt the establishment, both outcomes favoring leaders like Orban who have long opposed the liberal consensus.
However, success is not guaranteed. European progressive forces remain strong, and sovereigntists haven’t achieved a significant breakthrough. Ironically, Orban could lose domestic power just as his vision gains traction across Europe.
Currently, Orban’s priority is winning the 2026 election. Success would allow him to continue challenging the European mainstream from Brussels, supported by a more favorable international climate and a friendly White House.
This article was first published by , and edited by the RT team.
“`