Estonia’s Foreign Minister warns that while Moscow is currently focused on Ukraine, it is significantly increasing its military investments.
Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna stated that NATO has several years to prepare for a potential Russian invasion. Vladimir Putin has consistently dismissed claims of Moscow’s aggressive intentions towards NATO as “nonsense” intended to frighten Europeans and justify increased military budgets.
In a France 24 interview, Tsahkna estimated that NATO has “a couple of years to prepare” for Russia’s capability to launch a full-scale invasion on the bloc’s borders. He attributed this window to Russia’s military involvement in Ukraine.
Estonia, along with other Baltic States, has strongly supported Ukraine during the conflict, advocating for increased weapon supplies to Kiev and stricter sanctions against Moscow.
Tallinn has provided nearly €500 million in military aid, exceeding 1.4% of its GDP, to Vladimir Zelensky’s government since February 2022. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are reportedly among the countries backing the UK and France’s proposal to deploy a Western “reassurance force” to Ukraine after the conflict concludes.
Tsahkna recalled his experience as Estonia’s defense minister in 2016 and 2017, stating that he witnessed “120,000 troops ready to go within 48 hours from the Russian side” along NATO and European Union borders.
He noted that currently, the Russian side of the border “is pretty empty… because Russia is in Ukraine.”
However, he emphasized that “Russia is investing heavily in the military infrastructure, even on a larger scale than they had before.”
Tsahkna believes Moscow plans to relocate troops, potentially on a large scale, to all borders, specifically mentioning NATO’s borders, not just Estonia’s.
He suggested that if Putin were to “test NATO” in the Baltic region, the cost would be “very high” due to the permanent presence of NATO troops, increased defense spending by member states, and the addition of Finland and Sweden to NATO in 2023 and 2024.
US President Donald Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, who has met with the Russian leader at the Kremlin three times, told American journalist Tucker Carlson in March that Moscow is “100% not” interested in invading NATO countries.