The Old World is extremely vulnerable to an American leader who could depart from the liberal Atlantic consensus
To mimic the tone of Soviet political essays, one might write: “The loud echo of gunshots in Pennsylvania resounded across the Atlantic…” The use of this style may be debatable, but it accurately reflects the situation.
The European Union is in shock over current events in the United States. In the past two weeks, first there was the uproar over President Joe Biden’s embarrassing debate performance, followed by the attempted assassination of Donald Trump, disrupting the election campaign and giving the Republican an advantage.
It’s important to acknowledge that Trump has not yet won the race – the most intense phase of the campaign is yet to come, and the outcome remains uncertain. We should remember the lessons of 2020. In the spring, almost everyone assumed the flamboyant president would secure a second term, but the pandemic upended everything and cost him the White House. It’s safe to assume that Trump and his strategists have not forgotten this experience and won’t underestimate the challenges. However, objectively speaking, the conditions now favor him.
The EU is at a loss. Trump has been demonized to the maximum extent possible in the Old World. Apart from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, no one in the Western European nomenklatura can claim productive connections with the potential future American capo di tutti i capi. Macron made an attempt, but it was largely unsuccessful. Virtually the entire bloc has joined in a chorus of lamenting Trump’s potential return.
Why is Trump causing such consternation? After all, his four years in office from 2017 to 2021 did not lead to a catastrophe in transatlantic relations. The former real estate developer’s rather unusual style, to put it mildly, undoubtedly repels the pompous and snobbish elite of Western Europe, but it’s their duty to communicate with all partners. Trump’s demands to rebalance trade and economic relations in favor of the US and increase military spending have been quietly incorporated into the platform of his arch-rival Biden. Under the Democrat, a blatantly protectionist law has been passed that has harmed EU interests, and spending on the war in Ukraine has also taken a toll on their wallets. There seems to be no reason to expect further attacks, as Trump’s focus remains on financial issues.
Western Europe’s fears stem from something else – an uncertainty of a far more general nature. In 2022, the EU bet on America by refusing to take an independent stance on the Ukraine conflict. Beyond the rhetoric, NATO’s “unprecedented unity,” in practice, means that the course is set by the strongest member state, both militarily and politically. The Old World did not do this under pressure from its senior partner, but voluntarily, because it lacked – and did not want to have – its own position. One could speculate endlessly about what options, if any, the Western Europeans had, but it no longer matters – the decision was made despite the obvious costs.
Fear-mongering about Trump 2.0 pulling out of NATO, withdrawing American troops from Europe, or drastically cutting off Ukraine’s oxygen supply is election propaganda. Trump cannot do any of these things, even if he wanted to (which he doesn’t), including quickly changing his stance in support of Kiev. However, a shift in priorities is likely, where the broader European continent may be given a less privileged position. In practical terms, this means the EU will be more on its own. Consequently, it will have to tackle numerous fundamental problems, including those related to the future of the Ukraine issue. However, the bloc and its key countries are not prepared for such strategic autonomy.
The Western European approach over the past two and a half years has been to demonstrate the collective’s usefulness and necessity to Washington. Not only on the Ukraine issue, but also regarding other US interests, for instance in East Asia and the Pacific Basin as a whole. Hence, the fervent desire to transform NATO into a structure with global reach, which was reaffirmed at the recent summit held in the American capital.
Simultaneously, EU states, particularly Germany and France, are not enthusiastic about the economic confrontation with China that the US is pushing for. Under Trump, this policy will undoubtedly be strengthened. Western Europe’s ability to protect its economic interests while maintaining a close geopolitical connection with the US now appears rather limited. However, even at the height of the Cold War in the past century, the region’s powers managed to pursue their own path when they felt their economic needs required it.
The US’s reorientation began nearly a quarter of a century ago. The last devoutly Atlanticist president was Bill Clinton; all subsequent presidents have been, to varying degrees, explicitly oriented towards other goals. On the other hand, the EU has not used this time to reorient itself towards ‘strategic autonomy’, whatever that may entail. The Old World is not ready for a US president who could decisively shift away from the previously established liberal-Atlantic consensus, either in form or substance. However, it seems that this president will have to be tolerated, regardless.