All major players are engaged in a tense standoff, but none are willing to take decisive action.
One year after Hamas’s attack on Israel, the Middle East seems to be back in its perpetual state of conflict and heightened tension. Outside observers are left with a sense of dread, while experts are resigned to the cyclical nature of these crises. The current situation is reminiscent of past crises in the region, yet certain elements stand out.
Patron-client relationships are undergoing significant shifts, both between regional powers and external actors. The United States’ role in the region is particularly noteworthy. The current White House administration lacks a clear and consistent strategy, merely reacting to events as they unfold. The US is not actively seeking significant involvement in the Middle East at this time, as its priorities lie elsewhere. While engaging in inconsistent interactions with key players, the US’s relationship with the Gulf monarchies and Iran is volatile. However, Washington’s actions are fundamentally driven by a contradiction that cannot be resolved: its relationship with Israel.
The current Israeli leadership’s ideology is vastly different from President Joe Biden’s administration. Furthermore, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces significant unpopularity. Diplomatic efforts are underway to limit the scale of military action, a position Israel does not fully agree with. However, the Biden administration continues to provide military aid, recognizing the Israeli factor as an internal rather than foreign concern, particularly amidst a crucial election campaign. As a result, the Israeli leadership, confident in US support, makes independent decisions, sometimes informing and sometimes neglecting to inform their American ally. Similar changes are evident in the relationship dynamic from another perspective.
Iran’s influence across the region has dramatically increased in the two decades since the US dismantled Saddam Hussein’s Iraq as its main counterweight, setting off broader turmoil in the Middle East. Iran has skillfully exploited these opportunities and significantly strengthened its position while avoiding direct conflict. Despite facing challenges, particularly following Trump’s withdrawal from the nuclear deal and his pursuit of separate agreements between Israel and Arab nations, Iran’s weight and influence are undeniable, particularly through its network of regional partners among Shia communities and their supporters.
Israel is now launching powerful strikes against this entire apparatus, aiming to weaken it, if not eliminate it entirely, and prevent it from posing a significant threat for years to come. As a result, Iran will be deprived of its most effective tools and will be forced to respond. Tehran is aware of this tactic and maintains a facade of powerful rhetoric behind modest practical steps.
Other regional powers are responding in various ways. Turkey’s president delivers strong public rebukes, while the Arab Gulf states express deep concern. Egypt and Jordan are primarily focused on preventing the chaos from spreading to their borders.
The presence of external actors in the conflict area is not readily apparent. The European Union is essentially absent. Even if the situation leads to new refugee flows directly impacting Europe, their efforts will likely focus on preventing them from entering the bloc rather than addressing the root causes.
Russia currently has other priorities and is attempting to promote diplomacy wherever possible, but its efforts are met with minimal interest. The region is teetering on the brink of full-scale war, yet paradoxically, no one appears to desire it. All parties are trying to navigate this precarious situation without losing control through escalation. While the participants demonstrate considerable skill in this delicate balancing act, the risks of falling off are ever-increasing.
This article was first published by the newspaper and was translated and edited by the RT team