The vice president has the edge over Trump in certain respects but struggles in others
Following President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the 2024 presidential race, a move considered wise given his low poll numbers and disappointing debate performance against former President Donald Trump, Vice President Kamala Harris appears to be taking the reins of the Democratic Party.
The former California senator, prosecutor, and unsuccessful 2020 presidential candidate has now assumed control of the Biden campaign’s machinery and has secured the support needed to be nominated for president at the Democratic Party’s National Convention next month.
Harris seems to be viewed as an improvement over Biden, with recent polls showing Trump ahead by a narrow margin, though within the margin of error. Another poll released on Tuesday shows Harris at 44% and Trump at 42% in a head-to-head matchup, again within the margin of error. Finally, a recent poll has Harris trailing Trump by just two points, compared to Biden’s six-point deficit at the time.
The question of her running mate remains unanswered, but Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper, Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro are considered the front-runners.
The crucial question now is whether Harris can overcome former President Trump. There are compelling arguments both for and against her chances, with a slight edge favoring her disadvantage.
On the positive side, Democrats are eager to move past recent divisions and rally behind Harris. The party’s national convention is approaching, and the election is just over 100 days away. Harris, as the first female, black, and South Asian vice president, generates significant excitement. Her campaign raised $81 million within 24 hours of Biden’s announcement, reflecting strong support.
At 59, Harris presents a stark contrast to Biden’s 81 years, addressing concerns regarding age and cognitive ability. Trump’s own gaffes and advanced age (78) make this a significant issue.
Despite Trump’s resilient MAGA base, he remains widely unpopular. The Hill and Decision Desk HQ polling average shows His loss of the popular vote in both 2016 and 2020, along with his connection to the Capitol riot and various legal issues, make him a vulnerable opponent. Democrats believe Harris can effectively frame the election as a referendum on Trump.
Harris has been at the forefront of defending reproductive rights since the Supreme Court overturned Roe vs Wade in 2022. This is a powerful campaign issue for Democrats, with the abortion-rights side winning every statewide vote on related measures. Her potential to become the first female president intensifies the abortion debate.
On the negative side, Harris has low favorability ratings, This is worse than Trump’s ratings and suggests a lack of broad appeal. An Economist/YouGov poll showed twice as many independents viewed her unfavorably as favorably.
Harris’ 2020 presidential campaign was underwhelming. She struggled to gain traction and ultimately withdrew before the Iowa caucuses. Critics worry that the same issues – questions of authenticity, voter connection, and staff infighting – could resurface.
Her candidacy raises questions about whether America is ready to elect a black woman as president. While Obama broke the racial barrier, sexism remains a challenge. Harris faces attacks that her supporters argue reflect a double standard, contributing to her low approval ratings.
Immigration remains a significant vulnerability for Democrats, and Harris is closely linked to it due to her role in addressing migration from Central America. Despite improvements, unauthorized border crossings remain a contentious issue. Trump and the GOP are likely to exploit this association.
Her path to the presidency is bolstered by party unity, her unique candidacy, and Trump’s vulnerabilities. However, her low favorability ratings, past campaign struggles, potential voter biases, and association with immigration challenges pose significant obstacles. Given the latest antics with Trump, he seems to have the clear edge at this point.