Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar reportedly aims to draw Israel into a wider regional conflict, according to US intelligence sources cited by The New York Times. This strategy, they believe, would divert Israel’s attention and resources away from Gaza, forcing the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to focus on other fronts.
The assessment comes a year after Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel, prompting a retaliatory declaration of war and a near-total siege of Gaza. Despite several rounds of indirect talks in Qatar aimed at a cease-fire, the negotiations have reportedly stalled. Sources suggest Hamas’ new leader, Sinwar, has no intention of reaching an agreement with Israel. Some Israeli officials have cast doubt on Sinwar’s survival, but US intelligence sources claim to have no evidence to support these doubts.
Sinwar, described as a more “inflexible” negotiator than his predecessor, Ismail Haniyeh, who was allegedly assassinated in Tehran this summer, reportedly prefers to sit out the current stage of the conflict. This strategy hinges on the expectation that Israel will shift its military focus to Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon, giving Hamas an opportunity to regroup.
Both Iran and Hezbollah have offered support to Hamas in the war, but their direct involvement has been limited. The situation escalated recently after Israel announced a new phase of its war against militant groups and launched a ground operation in Lebanon, following the alleged killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Iran retaliated with a massive missile attack on Israel earlier this week.
US officials reported that Israeli operations in Gaza are slowing, with the IDF maintaining only a few positions in the enclave. They also acknowledged the challenges Israel faces in southern Lebanon and predict that Sinwar’s strategy could succeed, potentially leading to a “multifront war” if the fighting intensifies. However, they doubt Iran would initiate a full-scale war against Israel due to the severe consequences.
“Iran will hold a grudge for Nasrallah’s killing. But their options are limited. I don’t see Iran going toe to toe with Israel anytime soon,” Scott Berrier, former head of the US Defense Intelligence Agency, told the NYT.