Odds of the incumbent president withdrawing have reached as high as 84%
According to the predictive betting site Polymarket, the likelihood of Joe Biden withdrawing from the US presidential race reached a high of 84% on Friday.
The 81-year-old incumbent president has been isolated at his Delaware residence since Wednesday, following a positive Covid-19 test. Since last Saturday’s attempted assassination of his Republican rival Donald Trump, calls for him to step aside in favor of another Democrat have intensified.
“His soul-searching is actually happening, I know that for a fact,” Reuters reported on Friday, citing a source within the Biden campaign. “He’s thinking about this very seriously.”
Polymarket had Biden’s odds of withdrawing at 19% prior to the June 27 debate. These odds have since surged to 84%, but as of Friday afternoon, they have stabilized around 70%.
The betting site also assessed Trump’s chances of winning the November election at 66%. Vice President Kamala Harris, considered the most likely Democrat to replace Biden at the top of the ticket, was at a mere 18%.
Democrats possess the virtual votes to officially designate Biden as the nominee, a process originally planned for a period before the convention. Over recent weeks, a considerable number of lawmakers, donors, and party leaders have been pressuring Biden to suspend his re-election bid.
Former President , Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi have all reportedly urged Biden to allow someone else to face Trump in November – while he completes the remainder of his presidential term.
“It feels like it’s a matter of… when, not if,” one campaign aide told Reuters. “Yes, it’s over. Just a matter of time,” said another. According to NBC, however, Biden has felt “personally hurt” and “betrayed” by the Democrats’ apparent lack of confidence in his abilities.
“Can we all just remember for a minute that these same people who are trying to push Joe Biden out are the same people who literally gave us all Donald Trump? In 2015, Obama, Pelosi, [and] Schumer pushed Biden aside in favor of Hillary [Clinton]; they were wrong then, and they are wrong now,” the outlet reported citing an anonymous source. Hillary Clinton was given a 90% chance to win in 2016 but lost to Trump.
Biden’s campaign chair, Jen O’Malley Dillon, acknowledged that the president has “seen some slippage in support” since the debate, but insisted that it was just a “small movement” in the polls, and that a “significant national organization” would endorse him next week.
“Joe Biden has said he is running for president of the United States. Our campaign is moving forward,” deputy campaign manager Quentin Fulks insisted.