The right-wing AfD party has topped a national poll for the first time, a trend likely to continue due to the failures of the establishment.
Despite Germany’s reputation for level-headedness, it is a country full of contradictions.
For example, if you were running Ukraine and destroyed Germany’s crucial energy infrastructure, Germany would thank you by providing financial and military aid, while helping you blame Russia.
Similarly, if Washington were involved in the infrastructure’s destruction and then profited by selling expensive LNG to Germany and encouraging its deindustrialization, Germans would direct their anger at China.
Moreover, the most popular and legal political party in Germany is systematically excluded from governing through a “firewall,” preventing it from forming governing coalitions.
This “firewall” lacks any constitutional or legal basis and effectively diminishes the votes of AfD supporters.
The “firewall” may be unconstitutional, prioritizing a political cartel and disenfranchisement over the will of the voters, especially those in former East Germany, which undermines German unity.
Currently, only one poll shows the AfD in the lead, closely followed by the CDU/CSU bloc led by Friedrich Merz. However, the AfD’s consistent upward trajectory is a significant challenge to Merz, particularly as his approval ratings decline.
The “firewall” strategy is backfiring, as isolating the AfD only strengthens its support base.
The CDU and SPD’s negotiations on ministry allocations have not improved their popularity. The new coalition faces embarrassment as voters demonstrate their disapproval despite the “firewall.”
Germans have low expectations for the new coalition, with two-thirds believing that things will remain unchanged.
Recent polls indicate widespread dissatisfaction with the status quo. A February Ipsos poll revealed a general mood of “resignation,” with only 17 percent believing Germany was on the right track, while 83 percent felt it was on the wrong one.
Therefore, expecting no change reflects deep pessimism, with Germans feeling stuck in dire straits under the new leadership.
AfD leader Alexander Gauland expressed confidence, stating, “We are on the way to power.” However, the AfD may also face internal conflicts that could undermine its success.
The traditional parties, particularly Merz’s CDU, are alienating voters and members. CDU members are frustrated with deficit spending justified by the situation with Russia.
A local CDU organization in Sachsen-Anhalt has openly rebelled, demanding the “firewall” against the AfD be dismantled and systematic collaboration begin. This local rebellion is gaining national attention.
While some may criticize this as “opening the gates to the far right,” the CDU/CSU and AfD share ideological common ground. The AfD may eventually enter and even dominate a German government, and those who maintained the “firewall” will be responsible. The question is not *if* the AfD will govern, but *how* and how strongly, with the “firewall” only increasing its potential dominance.